From 3/8/10 Letter | Self Directed Investor

As for the market, please forgive me for my honest admission of "I don't know." To make estimates about the market in the future at this point is to do nothing more than guess on the continued irrationality of the masses. Estimation of mass irrationality is not a skill set I possess. However, one thing is for certain: the higher indexes go, the more risky they become � so tread carefully.

This Article's Word Cloud: Estimation However about admission become carefully certain continued document estimates forgive future guess higher honest indexes irrationality know make market mass masses more nothing please point possess risky skill than they thing this tread write

| More

We Need Demand, not Protectionism
Fri, Sep 10, 12:32 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
There is demand and there is supply. Alfred Marshall taught us that they work together ...

TPC’s New Tax Calculator
Thu, Sep 9, 5:23 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at the Tax Policy Center, we just unveiled a nifty new tool for understanding ...

Are the Obama Administration's Policies Making the Recession Worse?
Wed, Sep 8, 6:42 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
I was recently invited to speak on the topic of "Whether the Obama Administration's policies ...

The New Normal in Oil and Natural Gas Prices
Tue, Sep 7, 8:43 PM ET, by Donald Marron
In previous posts (most recent here), I noted that oil and natural gas prices have ...

August Rail Traffic, An Upbeat Economic Indicator
Mon, Sep 6, 9:13 AM ET, by Donald Marron
August was a busy month for America’s railroads, according to the Association for American Railroads. ...

Another Observation on the Yield Curve
Sun, Aug 29, 8:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
As a follow-up to my recent post about recessions and the yield curve, reader Joan ...

Further Signs of a Slowdown
Fri, Aug 27, 6:23 PM ET, by Donald Marron
As expected, BEA’s second stab at GDP growth for the second quarter was even less ...

The Yield Spread and the Odds of Recession
Thu, Aug 26, 11:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Worries about a double-dip recession have spawned much economic commentary … and a humorous country ...

Investors Should Be Prepared to Face Financial Oppression
Wed, Aug 25, 10:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
That’s the conclusion of a new report by Morgan Stanley analyst Arnaud Mares. And what, ...

Quantitative Easing
Wed, Aug 25, 8:32 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
A Toxic Phrase for a Routine Policy When the Fed "eases" monetary policy by stepping ...

A New Price Tag for Stimulus: $814 Billion
Tue, Aug 24, 11:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Last week the Congressional Budget Office released updated budget projections — atreasure trove of information ...

No, the Web Isn’t Dead (Yet)
Mon, Aug 23, 10:53 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Wired’s cover story this month, “The Web is Dead,” features the following chart showing the ...

The Delta Blues
Mon, Aug 23, 11:42 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
What happened in 08 Was yesterday's news. What's happening now Is the delta blues. ...

Double Dippin’
Sun, Aug 22, 10:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
I am more than a week behind on this, but in case you missed it, ...

I Found What I Was Looking For …
Sun, Aug 22, 10:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Just back from eight days in southeast Alaska. I won’t torment you with too much ...

Fiscal Policy in Interesting Times
Mon, Aug 16, 0:13 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Back on August 5, I gave a speech at the Retirement Research Consortiums annual conference ...

The FOMC's Action
Wed, Aug 11, 9:42 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
Most central bankers view monetary policy as influencing the rate of growth of the money ...

It’s Back-to-School Season, Time to Lay Your Bets
Tue, Aug 10, 9:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
According to an article over at the Huffington Post (ht Natalie), students at 36 colleges ...

“Tracking” the Economy
Mon, Aug 9, 7:53 PM ET, by Donald Marron
The fine folks at the Association of American Railroads are out with their latest edition ...

FOMC Meeting: Pre-Meeting Thoughts
Mon, Aug 9, 3:22 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Back in the day, as they say now, I would go into some FOMC meetings ...

House Prices: Demographics Giveth and Taketh Away
Fri, Aug 6, 5:23 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at the Bank for International Settlements, Elod Takats has a new working paper that ...

The Chevy Volt Premium
Thu, Aug 5, 7:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
The other day I noted that Amazon has been tussling with book publishers over the ...

Three A’s of E-Book Pricing: Amazon, Apple, and Antitrust
Tue, Aug 3, 8:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
A few months ago, I noted that Amazon and book publishers were tussling over the ...

The Fed's Balance Sheet: Shrink It or Not?
Tue, Aug 3, 3:32 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
"Fed Mulls Symbolic Shift" is the title of a front-page article in today's (8/3/10) Wall ...

We’re Still #1 (Unfortunately)
Mon, Aug 2, 0:33 AM ET, by Donald Marron
The Bureau of Economic Analysis rewrote history on Friday. Along with GDP data for the ...

A Silver Lining in Second Quarter GDP?
Sun, Aug 1, 7:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Last Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first look at GDP growth in ...

Monetary Policy, Deflation, and Quantitative Easing
Fri, Jul 30, 1:12 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
The attention paid to the recent statements by St. Louis Fed President Bullard regarding potential ...

Bullard, Deflation, and Quantitative Easing
Thu, Jul 29, 10:42 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Click here to see my CNBC interview today on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comments ...

St. Louis Fed President Bullard, Deflation, and Quantitative Easing
Thu, Jul 29, 10:12 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Click here to see my CNBC interview today on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comments ...

Taxing the Rich
Tue, Jul 27, 1:32 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Long ago and far away I taught economic principles and money and banking in night ...

The Cocoa Corner: Is Choc Finger Down $150 Million?
Sun, Jul 25, 10:43 PM ET, by Donald Marron
In a front page story on Sunday, the New York Times suggests that commodity investor ...

Lexapro can cure the stress tests depression
Fri, Jul 23, 12:36 PM ET, by Jeremy F. - CEO, Hedge Fund Live
Another day, the same old story. Stress tests are out. ...

What’s the Best Voting System?
Fri, Jul 23, 11:43 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Last February I highlighted a New Yorker piece about instant runoff voting (IRV) in awarding ...

Market Bottoms Are Formed Out Of Fear
Wed, Jul 21, 3:26 PM ET, by Jeremy F. - CEO, Hedge Fund Live
Once again we see the bears manipulate our fears on thin air. Bernake tells us ...

A New Low in Home Construction
Wed, Jul 21, 0:13 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Yesterdayshousing data were suitably glum, with single-family starts and permits both down (0.7% and 3.4%, ...

Merle Hazard Goes to the Parthenon
Tue, Jul 20, 12:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
… in Tennessee, that is. But he’s singing about Greek debt: Given all the recent ...

Earnings and the Market
Tue, Jul 20, 9:16 AM ET, by Jeremy F. - CEO, Hedge Fund Live
Earnings have become pass, the economic numbers aren't very pretty, and the futures traders seem ...

What To Do With Fannie and Freddie?
Mon, Jul 19, 9:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
asked several experts to recommend options for resolving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two ...

Testimony on the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts
Fri, Jul 16, 5:23 PM ET, by Donald Marron
As you may have heard, the tax cuts that were originally enacted back in 2001 ...

Global Economics and the �Baton Toss�
Fri, Jul 16, 4:25 PM ET, by David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories
Recent conferencing in Toronto was another waypoint in the transit of global authority. The G8 ...

The End of Cap and Trade?
Mon, Jul 12, 10:53 PM ET, by Donald Marron
No, not for carbon. For sulfur dioxide. ...

July 2010 Economic Release Calendar
Mon, Jul 12, 9:41 AM ET, by Scott V. Nystrom
Date Event July 1 Initial Unemployment Claims-8:30 Construction Expenditures, May-10:00 ISM's Purchasing Manager's Index, ...

The Hot Tentacle
Sun, Jul 11, 6:33 PM ET, by Donald Marron
The World Cup started with vuvuzelas and ended with Paul the octopus. The world’s most ...

How to Defeat the Lionfish? Use Your Knife and Fork
Thu, Jul 8, 0:43 AM ET, by Donald Marron
As regular readers know, I am intrigued by animals in weird places (voles in the ...

Why Taxes Are Going Up
Wed, Jul 7, 12:13 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Its hard to imagine that spending restraint alone can solve Americas long-run fiscal woes. Facing ...

Filtering out the Noise
Wed, Jul 7, 7:26 AM ET, by Jeremy Klein, Hedge Fund Live
There is a lot of noise out there. Gargling sounds that are quite similar to ...

Banks Don't Pay Taxes; People Pay Taxes
Tue, Jul 6, 12:12 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
The fate of the financial reform legislation in the Senate apparently depends on whether it ...

Limping to the Finish Line
Tue, Jul 6, 7:16 AM ET, by Jeremy Klein, Hedge Fund Live
So we have run the gauntlet of last week’s data and have come out the ...

Extending Unemployment Insurance
Mon, Jul 5, 9:52 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves Paul Krugman argues In today's (July 5) New ...

A List of the Top 50 Economic Theories
Mon, Jul 5, 0:33 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Last year, the Ivy Press asked me to help them with a popular book about ...