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The VRNS Paradox: Analysts Bullish But Forecast -5.6% Fall

Thu, Dec 7, 9:34 AM ET, by ETF Channel

Analyst ratings can sometimes be complicated, and we here at ETF Channel have noticed a bit of a paradox with Varonis System Inc (VRNS). The average 12-month price target for VRNS averaging the work of 9 analysts reveals an average price target of $46.78/share. That's a whopping -5.6% below where VRNS has been trading recently at $49.55/share. With this kind of downside potential (should VRNS fall to that price target), one might expect to see a high concentration of "hold" or even "sell" ratings on the stock. Yet, take a look at the bullishness:

Start slideshow:
10
ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets

Recent VRNS Analyst Ratings Breakdown
Current 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 3 Month Ago
Strong buy ratings: 7 7 7 7
Buy ratings: 1 1 1 2
Hold ratings: 1 1 1 1
Sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Strong sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Average rating: 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.4

The average rating presented in the last row of the table above is from 1 to 5, where 1 would be a consensus Strong Buy and 5 would be a consensus Strong Sell. In the middle, 3 would be a Hold. So anything below 3 leans toward Buy as the average analyst sentiment. The average rating of 1.33 for VRNS leans strongly towards the bullish end of the spectrum, yet the VRNS price target paints a different picture. Clearly, there is something more to the story here that is worth investigating for investors looking at Varonis System Inc. Of course, the average price target is just that a mathematical average, and is only one metric. There are analysts with higher targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $55.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as low as $40.00. The standard deviation is $5.238.

But the whole reason to look at the average in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes much like with guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, where the average guess tends to be very close. And so with VRNS trading so far above that average target price of $46.78/share, the -5.6% downside to that average target does seem to be a paradox against the bullish analyst ratings. Might analysts be behind the curve with their targets and upward adjustments are forthcoming? Or, is it time for some of these analysts to turn bearish and downgrade on valuation? One thing is for sure: this apparent paradox makes for a good "signal" to investors in VRNS to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding whether analysts have it right with their sentiment, or have it right with their price target for Varonis System Inc. This article used data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com. Get the latest Zacks research report on VRNS FREE.

Read the original article at ETF Channel: The VRNS Paradox: Analysts Bullish But Forecast -5.6% Fall


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This Article's Word Cloud:   Analyst   Channel   Hold   Month   Sell   Strong   System   VRNS   Varonis   With   Zacks   above   adsbygoogle   analyst   analysts   article   average   below   bullish   consensus   downside   have   here   investors   just   leans   look   looking   mathematical   number   paradox   price   rating   ratings   right   sell   sentiment   share   spectrum   target   targets   that   their   these   this   time   trading   where   with   would

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