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Weekly Forex Market Followup (February 18th - February 22nd 2013)

Fri, Feb 22, 3:21 PM ET, by

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 18th through February 22nd

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 18th through February 22nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, February 18th

  • All Day USD Bank Holiday. The currency rose.
  • 2:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "Most of the exchange rate movements that we have seen were not explicitly targeted, they were the result of domestic macroeconomic policies meant to boost the economy". He continued saying that, "In this sense, I find really excessive any language referring to currency wars," he said, adding that the euro's exchange rate was "around its long-term average." The currency rose.

Tuesday, February 19th

  • 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "Members began their discussion by noting that global economic developments had, on balance, been more positive since the December meeting. This was consistent with expectations of a gradual pick-up in the growth of global economic activity following the weakness seen in the September quarter 2012. Overall, growth was forecast to be around or a little above its long-term average over the next two years, with a strong contribution from faster-growing Asian economies." The currency rose.
  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 48.2 versus 35.3 expected. The currency rose.
  • 5:15pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan said that, "For almost 18 months now, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been enforcing the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with the utmost determination. The need for this measure is widely recognized, both domestically and abroad, due to the substantial appreciation of the Swiss franc in summer 2011." The currency rose.

Wednesday, February 20th

  • 2:30am NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, "The Reserve Bank is prepared to intervene to influence the kiwi". He continued by saying that, "but given the strength of recent capital flows, we can only attempt to smooth the peaks of the USD/NZD exchange rate; we cannot determine the level. When the NZ dollar is coming under upward pressure, we want investors to know that the kiwi is not a one-way bet." The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -12.5K versus -5.3K expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote: 0-0-9, as expected. They noted that, "The improved sentiment evident in financial asset prices since the summer had been sustained In part, that was likely to reflect the continued impact of the exceptionally accommodative policies of major central banks which had encouraged the reallocation of portfolios into more risky assets."
  • 1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.93M versus 0.92M expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD PPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected.
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, "The Committee voted unanimously to amend the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations and the Procedural Instructions with Respect to Foreign Currency Operations, and to reaffirm the Foreign Currency Directive in the form shown below. The approval of these documents included approval of the System's warehousing agreement with the U.S. Treasury."

Thursday, February 21st

  • 9:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 43.6 versus 43.9 expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.1 versus 50.4 expected.
  • 9:43am EUR Spanish 10-year Bond Auction 5.20 average yield with a 1.6 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 5.29 with a 2.3 bid to cover ratio.
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 362K versus 361K expected.
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.92M versus 4.91M expected.
  • 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -12.5 versus 0.7 expected.
  • 10:30pm AUD RBA Governor Stevens, speaking on the Australian Dollar, said that, "You need to be pretty confident that it is seriously overvalued and that the market is behaving in some irrational way before you would launch a large scale intervention, markets are irrational much of the time, but somehow, over the broad sweep of history, they have done a better job setting that price than we would have done if we'd been trying to set it." The currency rose.

Friday, February 22nd

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 107.4 versus 104.9 expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.1% versus -0.6% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.9% versus -0.3% expected.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week


Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.3345 open to a 1.3160 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 93.86 open to a 93.27 close.


Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.5492 open to a 1.5260 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0281 open to a 1.0304 close.


Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0078 open to a 1.0249 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.8434 open to a 0.8348 close.

SDI Glossary: "Bond" Definition
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Bank   Core   Currency   February   Flash   Forecast   Foreign   German   HigherActual   LowerActual   Manufacturing   Meeting   Mildly   Minutes   Operations   This   average   been   close   continued   cover   currency   economic   euro   exchange   expected   fell   following   from   global   have   irrational   lower   market   much   noted   open   rate   ratio   release   rose   said   seen   since   term   that   time   versus   with   would

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