Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

The Big Four US Equity Indexes and the 50d EMA Checkup

Mon, Dec 3, 11:32 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

There’s an interesting level we should be watching on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell Indexes but the Dow Jones hasn’t cleared above it yet.

Let’s look at these main equity indexes as they struggle to stay above the 50 day EMA – we’ll also be on guard for a “repeat scenario” from June.

Here’s the S&P 500:

Let’s start with the basics and build from there.

In November price broke forcefully under the rising 200d SMA only to form a V-Spike reversal that took the index back above not only the 200d SMA (locking in a Bear Trap), but the 20 then 50 day EMAs.

The focal point now is how price behaves ABOVE the 50d EMA – either it sustains support above and continues through the visual “Open Air” toward 1,430 then the 1,460 level, or else we see a “Repeat Scenario” where price behaves similar to the June 2012 pattern (a reversal back under the 50 EMA to trap the bulls).

These scenarios will form the basis for our game-planning (trade planning) strategies on the intraday and short-term levels.

The key inflection point for the S&P 500 remains at 1,410 as I highlighted from the November 27th update.

The NASDAQ reveals a similar picture:

I think 3,000 is the simple reference/inflection level but technically it is 2,993 (50d EMA) then 2,987 (200d SMA).

A break-back under 3,000 then 2,990 suggests that we should be playing the “Repeat Scenario” Thesis of a breakdown possibility similar to that of mid-June.

The “Bullish” thesis instead continues as long as the index is above (preferably) the 3,000 level.

The Russell 2000 small cap index aligns with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ:

June 2012 saw a similar big-burst day above the falling 50d EMA (the rcent burst was an upside gap) but June failed to hold initially above the 770 level.

The focal point here aligns near 810 with the 50d EMA resting at 813 while the rising 20d EMA now trades at 808, quickly approaching 810.

Again, the scenario planning calls for a “Repeat Situation” or “Continued Bullish Breakthrough” tradable outcome depending on what happens this week.

The Black Sheep of the US Equity Indexes currently is the Dow Jones which didn’t break the 50d EMA:

The Dow Jones reminds us why it is very important to look at other indexes, even if we’re solely S&P 500 or Russell traders.

At the moment, the chart picture from the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell suggests clear skies ahead from a successful breakout situation into Open Air.

However, the Dow Jones shows a market retracing up into a known resistance target with reversal candles forming into the EMA resistance.

In other words, the Dow Jones suggests caution while the other indexes hint at a breakout buy.

To be fair, a breakout above the 50d EMA at 13,060 would confirm a likely breakout and suggest real-time bullish plays (or a bullish trading bias) from there.

But until we see that breakout impulse, it may be best to be cautious and apply similar caution to the other indexes until we see a resolution from this key level.

Remember, June provided a similar upside breakout AFTER a similar V-Spike reversal and recovery back above the 200d SMA.

Take a moment and study the June scenario and put these current charts in context for your trade-planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey's new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

blog.afraidtotrade.com


SDI Glossary: "Bullish" Definition
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Equity" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Finance" Definition
SDI Glossary: "NASDAQ" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Bullish   Corey   Jones   June   November   Open   Repeat   Russell   Scenario   Spike   above   adsbygoogle   afraidtotrade   aligns   back   behaves   break   breakout   bullish   burst   caution   continues   focal   form   from   index   indexes   into   level   look   moment   only   other   planning   point   price   resistance   reversal   scenario   similar   suggests   that   then   there   these   this   under   upside   while   with

| More

Pondering a Perfect Pattern Repeat for Market at the Highs
Fri, Jan 20, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

A major part of technical analysis (charting) is identifying prior patterns – and their outcomes ...

This is a Very Tight Range for Traders Emini Jan 20
Fri, Jan 20, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stop what you’re doing and look at the trading range. Take off all indicators and ...

No Breakout Not Today Emini Trading Update Jan 19
Thu, Jan 19, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

My heart goes out to you if you excitedly decided 2017 was the year you ...

High Flying Financial Goldman Sachs GS Falls from the Highs
Wed, Jan 18, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stocks that are high-flyers run the risk of crashing back to earth. Goldman Sachs (GS) ...

Range Range Here to Stay Emini Update Jan 18
Wed, Jan 18, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re ready for this trading range at the highs to end, you’re not alone. ...

Emini Down from the Highs Still within the Range Jan 17
Tue, Jan 17, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In the battle for market dominance we still DON’T have a winner! Bulls? Bears? Still ...

Still Range Trading at the Highs January 13 Update
Fri, Jan 13, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In the battle for market dominance we still DON’T have a winner! Bulls? Bears? Nada. ...

Volatility Returns to the Emini January 12
Thu, Jan 12, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Buyers and sellers continue to struggle for dominance at the highs and right now neither ...

From the Highs Back to our First Fibonacci Level Jan 11
Wed, Jan 11, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I always find it fascinating when price does exactly what it’s supposed to do – ...

Crude Oil Crushes Lower as Expected from Divergences
Tue, Jan 10, 6:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Crude Oil gives us a textbook example of a reversal pattern – with negative divergences ...

Hey Look at that Emini Range January 10
Tue, Jan 10, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Bull Trap? Breakout? Both bulls and bears and fighting for dominance… and neither side is ...

Emini Playing Again at the Highs January 9
Mon, Jan 9, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Monday morning may be the beginning of a “bull trap” should price remain under the ...

Through the Highs We Go January 6
Fri, Jan 6, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Not to be outdone by this pesky sideways trading range, the stock market broke out ...

Something Strange in Sector Relative Strength Jan 5
Thu, Jan 5, 4:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What signal is money flow across sectors sending, and what’s strange about it? Let’s take ...

A New Emini Range at the Highs January 5
Thu, Jan 5, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The market has a bullish beginning to 2017 but right now, we’re seeing a return ...

VIX ETPs Flash Some Green in 2016
Wed, Jan 4, 4:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Last year I shocked quite a few investors and media outlets with the publication of ...

Join Us Live TODAY to Plan your 2017 with Corey and Wyckoff Analytics
Wed, Jan 4, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Let’s start 2017 on the right pathway! I’m honored to join Roman Bogomazov and Bruce ...

The Crude Oil Extraordinary Engulfing Day Jan 4
Wed, Jan 4, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Bullish or Bearish Engulfing Candles are rare in general, but it’s even more exceptional to ...

The Emini Surge Back to the Highs January 4
Wed, Jan 4, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stocks surged again, continuing the 2017 rally. We saw another bounce off our Fibonacci Grid ...

Emini Still Playing through our Fibonacci Grid Jan 3
Tue, Jan 3, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Happy New Year! Here’s to a profitable start to your 2017. Here’s today’s updated Emini ...

The 2016 VIX Futures Term Structure: Extraordinarily Average
Mon, Jan 2, 8:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Two days ago, in The Year in VIX and Volatility (2016), I made no mention ...

The Year in VIX and Volatility (2016)
Sat, Dec 31, 6:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

The consensus called for a big uptick in volatility in 2016 and while there was ...

My Low Volatility Prediction for 2016: Both Idiocy and Genius
Fri, Dec 30, 2:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

A year ago, Steve Sears of Barron'sasked me to pen a guest column for The ...

A Second Gap Collapse Day for the Emini to End 2016
Fri, Dec 30, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we planned from yesterday’s update, price did bounce (gap) up away from our 2,238 ...

Sears SHLD Surges from Lows Dec 29
Thu, Dec 29, 4:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Are you an aggressive trader who loves to call bottom reversals? Want to try your ...

Average VIX and Volatility for Last Fourteen Presidents
Thu, Dec 29, 2:31 PM ET, by Bill Luby

What kind of VIX is appropriate for the Trump Administration? For investors in general and ...

Emini Trades Down Toward and Reverses at our Fibonacci Target Dec 29
Thu, Dec 29, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Today’s session reminds us exactly why you should bookmark our page and read our morning ...

Apple AAPL Returns to the Swing Highs Dec 28
Wed, Dec 28, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What’s going to happen next with big trending stock Apple (AAPL)?! Let’s plot the Daily ...

Emini Fibonacci Breakdown Update December 28
Wed, Dec 28, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Is that an actual breakdown on a holiday week? Price shattered our First Fibonacci line ...

Believe it or Not Market Breadth Remains Strong Dec 27
Tue, Dec 27, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we rush into 2017, let’s pause a moment to assess the health of this ...

Perfect Pullbacks and Beautiful Breakouts for NVDA
Tue, Dec 27, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’ve had NVIDIA (NVDA) on our trading radar for quite some time because it has ...

Emini Relentlessly Runs for the Highs Dec 27 Update
Tue, Dec 27, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It wouldn’t be a holiday week without a bullish drift, would it? The S&P 500 ...

Join Corey and Thousands of Your Fellow Traders at the February New York Traders Expo
Fri, Dec 23, 9:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Start planning today! It’ll honestly be here before you know it and you don’t want ...

Look at that Beautiful Emini Fibonacci Holiday Bounce Dec 23
Fri, Dec 23, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s exciting – and lucrative – when price does exactly what it is supposed to ...

GoPro Goes for a Reversal off the Lows GPRO
Thu, Dec 22, 3:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

GoPro is an interesting stock at a critical pivot point that grabs our attention. Let’s ...

Emini Nails our First Fibonacci on Dec 22 Pullback
Thu, Dec 22, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s exciting – and lucrative – when price does exactly what it is supposed to ...

Netflix NFLX Directs a Run Back toward All Time Highs
Wed, Dec 21, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re a Netflix NFLX investor, you’re pleased that share prices are making a bold ...

Emini Forming Holiday Range at the Highs Dec 20
Wed, Dec 21, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re at a new bullish normal with the @ES as price settles into a short-term ...

Big Nike NKE Struggles at the Downtrend Lows
Tue, Dec 20, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Dow Jones component Nike (NKE) has not had a very good 2016. Price peaked above ...

Emini Still Bouncing off our Fibonacci Grid Dec 20
Tue, Dec 20, 11:21 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Up, up and away! To new highs we go! Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading ...

Post Fed Day Foibles and Quad Market Price Action
Mon, Dec 19, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we begin the new week, let’s reflect on how markets have predictably moved AFTER ...

Playing into our Emini Fibonacci Grid Again Dec 16
Fri, Dec 16, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The Fed still can’t stop the Fibonacci! As I highlighted in Wednesdayday’s morning update, we ...

NVIDIA NVDA Doubles to Key 100 Per Share Level
Thu, Dec 15, 1:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

They did it!! Buyers successfully more-than doubled the share price of tech-company NVIDIA (NVDA) since ...

Another Rally off our Emini Fibonacci Grid Dec 15
Thu, Dec 15, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The Fed can’t stop the Fibonacci! As I highlighted in yesterday’s morning update, we had ...

December Fed Day Emini Fibonacci Grid Update
Wed, Dec 14, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Here we are! It’s Fed Day and the board is set to raise interest rates ...

Emini Defying Gravity to New Highs Dec 13 Update
Tue, Dec 13, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After the smallest of reasonable retracements, buyers are at it again, propelling the market to ...

Like Disney DIS Exxon Mobil XOM Surges in Breakout
Mon, Dec 12, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Like Disney (DIS) last week, Exxon-Mobil (XOM) broke resistance, triggering a powerful bullish breakout. Take ...

Pullback and Updated Emini Fibonacci Grid Dec 12
Mon, Dec 12, 11:51 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In the event price doesn’t extend another six days higher – or infinitely higher – ...

Disney DIS Surges to Key Target Price Dec 9
Fri, Dec 9, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Media giant Disney (DIS) surged through a key resistance level at $100 and now achieved ...

Buyers Bullishly Break Emini Higher Dec 9 Update
Fri, Dec 9, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Buyers continued their relentless campaign of accumulating stocks as the S&P 5oo broke to new ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

The Big Four US Equity Indexes and the 50d EMA Checkup | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2017, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of serious individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.