Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

The Rise of Fiscal Cliff Concerns

Sun, Nov 11, 2:12 PM ET, by Bill Luby

How much of the recent selloff in stocks has been triggered by media's sudden obsession with the U.S. fiscal cliff? Is it possible that very little has changed under the surface, but the decibels associated with this issue are now off the charts?

For the last three weeks, VIX and More Fear Poll respondents have rated the issues surrounding the U.S. fiscal cliff as their biggest source of fear about the future of the stock market. Now that the election is behind us and the earnings season is winding down, these fears have been buffeted by a huge amount of media scrutiny suddenly being devoted to the subject.

The fiscal cliff is one of those issues that has been on the horizon for many months, but only recently have investors begun to pay attention to the problem. Part of the reason for this sudden interest in the fiscal cliff is that Congress and the Obama Administration were not going to address the fiscal cliff during the campaign season and consequently no one expected any progress on the fiscal cliff issues during this period. Now that the election is over, the issue is seen as a ticking time bomb, with a much shorter fuse each day.

While politicians, economists and business leaders across the globe have called for a speedy resolution of the fiscal cliff negotiations between Democrats and Republicans, the highly respected Congressional Budget Office added some new urgency to the dialogue with the publication of two new documents on Thursday:

  1. Economic Effect of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013
  2. Choices for Deficit Reduction

I cannot say that I pay much attention to the likes of CNBC and Bloomberg TV, but I understand that the fiscal cliff issue is now dominating the business television airwaves as well.

All this makes me wonder just how much of the recent selloff in stocks is driven by substance and how much is driven by the media frenzy.

I took a look at the Google Trends data for "fiscal cliff" and discovered that the issue barely registered on Google's radar until about May of this year.

[source(s): Google Trends]

There was an occasional mention of the fiscal cliff up through last Sunday, then on Monday, the day before the U.S. election, new interest in the subject began to surface. The big spike in interest in the fiscal cliff happened on the day following the election, when Google search volume in "fiscal cliff" rose tenfold and the media frenzy began.

[source(s): Google Trends]

Over the weekend, concerns about the fiscal cliff have been outpolling (voting is still open) concerns about the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis by the largest margin yet. The real question is whether this is due largely to a redirection of attention by the media and by investors or by changes in the underlying nature of the issue or the likelihood of a timely resolution to the problem. My guess is that more of the former is at work than the latter.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): none



SDI Glossary: "Trend" Definition
SDI Glossary: "VIX" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Cliff   Fear   Fiscal   Google   More   Poll   Reduction   Trends   Volatility   about   adsbygoogle   attention   barely   been   began   business   cliff   concerns   debt   documents   driven   during   election   fiscal   frenzy   have   interest   investors   issue   issues   last   many   media   mention   much   problem   recent   resolution   season   selloff   shorter   source   stocks   subject   sudden   surface   that   these   this   with

| More

Down to New Lows We Go in Stocks
Mon, Feb 8, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Two months into 2016 and the stock market is falling to fresh new downtrending lows. ...

Corey's February 5 Trend Day Market Update and Stock Scan
Fri, Feb 5, 4:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Tech stocks lead the market lower and there are some surprising drops in major names. ...

Corey's Midday Market Update and Stock Scan Feb 4
Thu, Feb 4, 6:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Yesterday saw a bullish “surprise” reversal and today gives us the opposite – a bear ...

Sell Swing Market Update and Stock Scan Feb 2
Tue, Feb 2, 9:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stocks fell sharply from a key overhead resistance target – with divergences – to produce ...

Google GOOGL Surges to New Highs on Earnings
Tue, Feb 2, 1:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Google (GOOGL) broke impulsively higher to a fresh new all-time price high today after yesterday’s ...

Feb 1 Crude Oil Trade Planning Levels
Mon, Feb 1, 1:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Crude Oil (@CL) broke lower at resistance with stocks this morning. Let’s overlay a Fibonacci ...

The Bullish Breakout and Uptrend Continues in Google GOOGL
Fri, Jan 29, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With the market bounce continuing today, Google (GOOGL) – one of our “strong stocks getting ...

Jan 28 Wide Range Day Update with Stock Scan
Thu, Jan 28, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Price is pivoting between the wide range from yesterday’s Fed Announcement. Let’s update our levels ...

There's the Break but Will it Hold?
Wed, Jan 27, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

There we go! The S&P 500 surged above 1,900 this morning! However, is this the ...

Rally into Resistance Update and Stock Scan Jan 26
Tue, Jan 26, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Today’s action so far completely erased the bearish action of yesterday, but price still couldn’t ...

Jan 25 Market Update and Trending Stock Scan of the Day
Mon, Jan 25, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The consolidation continues into the 1,900 level in the S&P 500 and we have new ...

Start Your Week with Corey and a Live Briefing Monday
Mon, Jan 25, 1:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited to announce that I’ll be returning for a fifth time to join a ...

Market Breadth Update Then and Now Jan 21
Thu, Jan 21, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What’s Breadth suggesting about the current market? And how was it extremely helpful in calling ...

The Top Five Best and Worst Dow Stocks So Far in 2016
Thu, Jan 21, 1:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With the S&P 500 falling over 11% at the beginning of 2016, which big-name stocks ...

Three Quick Charts Underscore How Bad 2016 Has Been
Wed, Jan 20, 1:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we focus on the US Stock Market, let’s pull the perspective back. Let’s focus ...

Downtrending Twitter TWTR Cannot Catch a Break
Tue, Jan 19, 3:52 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“Stocks which are weak tend to get weaker.” Twitter (TWTR) continues to demonstrate the power ...

Relentless Selling Market Update and Trending Stock Scan Jan 15
Fri, Jan 15, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Can buyers catch a break? Or better yet, catch a falling knife? Not yet it ...

Big Reversal Rally and Market Update with Stock Scan Jan 14
Thu, Jan 14, 6:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Some might say we were way overdue for a larger rally or snap-back bounce for ...

Critical Pivot Level Planning for SPX and NASDAQ
Thu, Jan 14, 1:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With the downside target fully achieved on a second “crash,” we prepare our next move ...

$30 per Barrel Achieved for Crude Oil - What Now
Tue, Jan 12, 1:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Crude Oil finally (and fully) achieved its downside round-number target of $30.00 per barrel this ...

The Surprising New Impulse Low for the Russell IWM
Fri, Jan 8, 4:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Just how low can this market go and how many more support levels can it ...

The Catalyst and Targets for a Bullish Rally Jan 8
Fri, Jan 8, 3:42 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Are stocks set to bounce (rally) after multiple days of selling? Divergences at support say ...

More Selling and Jobs Market Update and Stock Scan Jan 8
Fri, Jan 8, 3:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

You would think that a stronger Jobs Report this morning would be a catalyst for ...

The Five Surprising Downtrending Dow Jones Stocks at Fresh New 52 Week Lows
Thu, Jan 7, 4:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Are you ready to be surprised? Five leading, well-known stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial ...

Weekly Distribution Arc Trendlines and Targets for SP500 and Dow
Thu, Jan 7, 1:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

2016 begins very bearishly, and the selling continued this morning. Let’s focus on the Dow ...

Jan 6 Another Crash Market Update and Big Stock Scan
Wed, Jan 6, 6:42 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

2016 is off to a bearish beginning as the S&P 500 plunged to fresh new ...

The Year in VIX and Volatility (2015)
Tue, Jan 5, 3:52 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Every year one of my most-read posts is my annotated overview of the year in ...

Smith and Wesson SWHC Surges on Day of Obama Executive Order
Tue, Jan 5, 3:52 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Leading gun manufacturer Smith and Wesson (SWHC) surged on the very day President Obama announced ...

Trade Planning and Targeting for Google and Amazon GOOGL AMZN
Mon, Jan 4, 4:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Big trending stocks Google (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) took a big bearish hit (gap down) ...

Every Single VIX ETP (Long and Short) Lost Money in 2015
Mon, Jan 4, 8:12 AM ET, by Bill Luby

Just one month ago, in The Current VIX ETP Landscape, I plotted all twenty-four VIX ...

The Case Against High Stock-Market Volatility in 2016 (Guest Columnist at Barron's)
Sat, Jan 2, 3:52 PM ET, by Bill Luby

About a month ago, when Steve Sears and Barron's asked if I would be interested ...

Flat but Not Boring Year for 2015 SP500
Thu, Dec 31, 1:32 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If the 2,060 level for the S&P 500 seems familiar for you, that’s because it ...

Dec 29 Big Holiday Bullish Trend Day and Surging Stock Scan
Tue, Dec 29, 2:52 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Another holiday week bullish breakout triggered with this morning’s gap, creating a bullish short-squeeze. Check ...

Dec 28 Reversal Market Update and Trending Stock Scan
Mon, Dec 28, 3:52 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stocks played off a key pivot level this morning, but reversed off support mid-morning. Let’s ...

Intraday Bears Everywhere Except Bonds Monday
Mon, Dec 28, 12:32 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re following Money Flow across the main markets this Monday morning, you’ll notice the ...

Enhancing Performance with Low Volatility ETPs
Mon, Dec 28, 12:22 PM ET, by Bill Luby

One theme that I will spend more time on in 2016 and beyond is the ...

Stellar Bullish Trend Day Update and Surging Stock Scan Dec 23
Wed, Dec 23, 4:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Santa Claus continues to deliver the bullish goods to the market today! First, take a ...

The Santa Claus Rally Finally Appears!
Wed, Dec 23, 12:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s about time! The famous “Santa Claus Rally” occurred this holiday week. Many traders were ...

Netflix NFLX Struggles to Hold Key Support
Tue, Dec 22, 11:22 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Will Netflix (NFLX) hold critical support and bounce higher to continue the uptrend? Or perhaps ...

Tracking Money Flow and Sector Rotation Video
Mon, Dec 21, 7:42 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

James Ramelli and I presented a featured webinar earlier in December entitled: “How to Follow ...

Big Stock Scan and Midday Market Update Dec 21
Mon, Dec 21, 3:52 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Today’s session – while bearish – is showing hopeful bullish signs. What are they? Let’s ...

A Bottom Fishing Buy for Chipotle CMG?
Mon, Dec 21, 12:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Might Chipotle (CMG) be flashing a “bottom fishing” bounce (buy) signal at current lows? More ...

What Breadth Says about the Current Market Dec 21
Mon, Dec 21, 11:52 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What message does Breadth reveal to us right now during the holiday week? Let’s take ...

Big Stocks Downtrending in our Update and Scan Dec 18
Fri, Dec 18, 3:42 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Wow – we’ve got some big names taking a bearish hit today in our “downtrending ...

Post Fed Volatile Market Update and Scan for Dec 17
Thu, Dec 17, 3:14 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Well that bullish post-Fed rally was fun while it lasted. Today’s session so far has ...

Google GOOGL and Amazon AMZN are Giving the Same Trading Setup
Thu, Dec 17, 11:13 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Whether you’re a Google (GOOGL) or Amazon (AMZN) trader, these high-flying, uptrending stocks are showing ...

Gold Has Officially Gone Crazy - How to Make Sense of it
Thu, Dec 17, 10:52 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Gold surprised both bulls and bears with high volatility and “gappy” price movement this week. ...

Downtrending Apple AAPL Triggers another Sell Signal
Wed, Dec 16, 12:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What’s going on with Apple (AAPL)? This week shares broke a key trendline support level, ...

Stock SWN: From Zero to Hero Way Back to Zero
Tue, Dec 15, 2:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Southwestern Energy (SWN) gives us a textbook example of the cycles a stock goes through ...

The December Color Ribbon of Resistance Chart
Tue, Dec 15, 12:22 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What “Wall of Ribbon Resistance” must the stock market clear? Let’s update our special “Color ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

The Rise of Fiscal Cliff Concerns | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2016, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of serious individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.