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ETF Insider: Don’t Try To Catch The Falling Knife

Sat, Nov 17, 9:15 AM ET, by Michael Johnston

Investors endured a painful week of profit-taking on Wall Street as post-election worries over the looming “fiscal cliff” have taken center stage. Overseas, European policymakers did what they do best: kick the can down the road. Finance ministers from the currency bloc agreed to postpone Greek austerity talks yet again, giving an extension through November 20. At home, weekly jobless claims came in above expectations as Hurricane Sandy took its toll on the domestic labor market recovery [see Free 7 Simple & Cheap All-ETF Model Portfolios].

Actionable ETF Trade Ideas

Last Week’s Actionable ETF Ideas
Ticker Position Week Performance
IYT

Long

-1.3%
GDX

Long

-3.4%
XLF

Long

-2.1%

Our picks from Monday’s Insider posted sour performance results as profit-taking pressures reigned supreme on Wall Street throughout the entire week. Below, we highlight how our trade ideas fared during the week [sign up for a free trial of ETFdb Pro to get actionable ETF ideas every Monday, as well as access to more than 45 all-ETF model portfolios].

Trade #1 Long IYT: Down 1.3%

This recommendation kicked off the week on an encouraging note as IYT traded higher, settling right around $90 a share. Wednesday proved to be an absolutely dismal trading session as stocks across the board took a nosedive, with IYT following the broader market lower. Our stop-loss at $88 a share was triggered and we cut our losses, which ended up serving as well seeing as this ETF closed below $87 as share on Friday.

Trade #2 Long GDX: Down 3.4%

This recommendation suffered serious losses this week as profit-taking pressures hit gold futures prices and mining equities alike. GDX traded sideways all of Tuesday, offering some hope for a bounce higher, however, selling pressures prevailed in the following sessions. We cut our losses at $49 a share as outlined, which served us well as GDX settled below $46.50 a share on Friday.

Trade #3 Long XLF: Down 2.1%

This recommendation traded sideways in the first half of the week only to give into profit taking pressures on Wednesday like virtually every other asset class. XLF slid right past our outlined stop-loss at $15.25 a share on Wednesday afternoon, leading us to incur yet another frustrating loss on the week.

ETFdb Portfolios

Retirement ETFdb Portfolios

Our Cheapskate Portfolio proved to be most resilient among our retirement strategies this week, while our equity-heavy 30 Years Til Retirement Portfolio, not surprisingly, turned in the worst performance.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
5 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.14% -3.51% -1.59% 6.13% 6.86% 23.88% n/a
10 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.26% -3.98% -1.47% 7.97% 8.62% 25.55% 9.41%
20 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.55% -4.81% -1.61% 9.92% 10.61% 28.25% n/a
30 Years Til Retirement Portfolio -1.69% -5.25% -2.19% 9.32% 10.15% 29.79% 3.17%
Aggressive Portfolio -1.52% -4.62% -0.92% 8.95% 8.62% n/a n/a
Cheapskate Portfolio 0.06% 0.13% 4.21% 8.94% 13.23% n/a n/a
Low Volatility Portfolio -0.82% -2.34% -0.29% 6.71% 8.27% n/a n/a
Moderate Portfolio -1.24% -3.55% -0.73% 7.58% 8.30% 25.32% n/a
Ready To Retire ETFdb Portfolio -0.82% -2.03% -0.18% 6.56% 7.32% 25.39% 22.41%
As Of 11-15-2012
Regional ETFdb Portfolios

Looming debt drama in Europe coupled with “fiscal cliff” woes at home prompted investors to scale back on risk exposure all over the globe. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, our Asia-Centric Portfolio came out on top this week while our Africa-Centric Portfolio came in at the bottom of the barrel.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Africa-Centric Portfolio -3.03% -3.41% -1.01% 12.39% 8.91% n/a n/a
Asia-Centric ETFdb Portfolio -0.60% -1.69% 2.77% 10.75% 7.79% n/a n/a
BRIC-or-Bust ETFdb Portfolio -2.22% -4.19% 0.53% 2.46% -6.07% n/a n/a
Easy-As-ABC ETFdb Portfolio -2.66% -4.99% -3.22% 1.18% -2.53% n/a n/a
Emerging & Frontier Markets ETFdb Portfolio -1.09% -2.93% 1.42% 11.88% 9.03% n/a n/a
Euro Free Europe Portfolio -1.91% -5.63% -1.74% 6.97% 6.50% n/a n/a
Ex-Europe ETFdb Portfolio -1.32% -3.61% -0.84% 7.48% 7.84% 23.03% n/a
ETFs without using U.S. securities.">Ex-U.S. Portfolio -1.04% -3.01% 2.51% 11.13% 10.04% 8.84% n/a
Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio -1.52% -3.73% 0.17% 9.76% 9.38% n/a n/a
LatAm Centric ETFdb Portfolio -2.90% -5.05% 0.09% 6.18% 1.70% n/a n/a
As Of 11-15-2012
Themed ETFdb Portfolios

Amid weakness on the stock front, our Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market Portfolio managed to turn in a fairly flat performance while every other strategy sank into red territory. Among the worst performers this week were the GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio and the Mining Boom ETFdb Portfolio.

ETFdb Portfolio 1 Week 4 Week 13 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
2012 ETFdb Portfolio -1.94% -5.69% 1.26% 14.07% n/a n/a n/a
Actively-Managed ETF Portfolio -1.69% -3.08% 0.10% 7.54% 7.55% n/a n/a
AlphaDEX ETFdb Portfolio -1.46% -4.07% 0.08% 6.14% 6.20% n/a n/a
Alpha Seeker Portfolio 2.0 -1.78% -4.90% -2.68% 5.02% 5.87% 23.73% n/a
Baby Boomers ETFdb Portfolio -1.66% -7.06% -2.23% 11.27% 16.16% n/a n/a
Ben Graham 50/50 Portfolio -0.79% -1.68% 2.08% 8.35% 11.13% n/a n/a
Better-Than-AGG Total Bond Market ETFdb Portfolio -0.23% -0.01% 1.96% 6.47% 7.13% n/a n/a
Black Swan Hyperinflation Portfolio -1.80% -4.89% -1.06% 0.93% -5.32% 15.65% n/a
Commodity Guru ETFdb Portfolio -0.92% -3.70% -0.71% 5.21% 1.18% n/a n/a
Cheapskate Hedge Fund ETFdb Portfolio -0.44% -1.11% -1.95% -3.14% -3.09% n/a n/a
Energy Bull ETFdb Portfolio -2.50% -8.17% -4.86% -3.39% -5.31% n/a n/a
Equal Weight ETFdb Portfolio -1.96% -3.34% 0.04% 5.95% 4.64% n/a n/a
Financials Free ETFdb Portfolio -1.19% -4.28% -1.14% 5.25% 7.48% 26.18% n/a
Futures Free Commodity ETFdb Portfolio -1.91% -5.08% -1.04% 0.81% -9.76% n/a n/a
GLD-Free Gold Bug ETFdb Portfolio -5.26% -6.49% 3.01% -0.34% -12.95% n/a n/a
Greedy When Others Are Fearful ETFdb Portfolio -1.08% -0.98% 1.49% 9.92% n/a n/a n/a
High-Tax Bracket ETF Portfolio -0.67% -2.84% -0.87% 8.12% 8.26% 21.80% n/a
High Tech ETFdb Portfolio -2.46% -7.22% -5.11% 4.19% 0.56% n/a n/a
High Yield ETFdb Portfolio -1.51% -3.60% -0.38% 9.40% 12.03% 34.70% n/a
King Dollar ETFdb Portfolio -0.71% -1.48% 0.12% 6.42% 6.98% n/a n/a
Kitchen Sink ETFdb Portfolio -1.34% -3.80% -0.69% 8.10% 7.52% n/a n/a
Monthly Dividend ETFdb Portfolio -2.20% -5.16% -2.44% 6.04% 8.36% n/a n/a
Pure Growth ETFdb Portfolio -1.19% -3.31% -0.05% n/a n/a n/a n/a
Pure Value ETFdb Portfolio -2.66% -4.82% 0.67% n/a n/a n/a n/a
RAFI ETFdb Portfolio -2.20% -6.33% -1.80% 6.22% 6.35% 13.99% -4.47%
Simple (But Effective) Safe Haven ETFdb Portfolio -1.02% -3.84% -0.14% 5.83% 4.90% 29.26% 27.34%
Small Cap ETFdb Portfolio -2.08% -4.80% -1.09% 9.76% 9.13% n/a n/a
The Sky Is Falling Portfolio -1.01% -0.80% -1.78% -3.31% -4.62% 11.58% n/a
Socially Responsible ETFdb Portfolio -1.56% -3.77% -1.02% 6.48% 6.37% n/a n/a
Risk On ETFdb Portfolio -0.62% -0.70% 5.49% n/a n/a n/a n/a
Consumer Centric ETFdb Portfolio -0.54% -2.50% 3.05% n/a n/a n/a n/a
Agri-Bull ETFdb Portfolio -1.74% -4.09% -2.13% 4.54% 2.53% n/a n/a
8% Yield ETFdb Portfolio -2.25% -5.22% -1.34% n/a n/a n/a n/a
Mining Boom ETFdb Portfolio -4.17% -5.35% 0.34% n/a n/a n/a n/a
As Of 11-15-2012

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.


SDI Glossary: "Alpha" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Bond" Definition
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Dividend" Definition
SDI Glossary: "ETFs" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Finance" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Futures" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Risk" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Yield" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Actionable   Asia   Better   Bull   Centric   Cheapskate   Down   ETFdb   Europe   Free   Friday   High   Long   Portfolio   Portfolios   Retirement   Street   This   Trade   Wednesday   Week   Year   Years   align   came   center   every   into   left   loss   losses   market   outlined   performance   portfolioGroup   portfolioNameCol   pressures   profit   recommendation   share   stop   taking   text   this   took   traded   week   well   which   while

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