Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

Charting the SP500 Outcome of Elections Past

Mon, Nov 5, 5:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With Election Day Tuesday and the market at a pivot point that determines how we play the next swing, I thought it would be a good opportunity to look at the outcome going toward December of the past four US Presidential Elections.

Let’s start with the set-up and outcome of 2000 and move forward to today’s structure:

For those of you who remember the famous 2000 election, the winner was not officially known until a month after election day.

With Election Day on November 7th, the S&P 500 was on a swing toward the 1,450 level with daily reversal candles forming as the election approached.

When the market opened Wednesday morning with the election outcome in dispute, the market fell 30 points to start a sustained down-swing that ended at 1,300.

After a counter-trend rally in early December, the market fell sharply after Governor Bush was declared the winner and thus President-Elect.

I must admit that I assumed the market rallied sharply on this news but this was not the case.

Structure was in a downtrend and the election outcome – on Election Day and when the President-Elect was announced – resulted in high-points of counter-trend upwswings in a new downtrend that would last all the way to October 2002’s bottom.

President Bush’s re-election in 2004 was announced late in the evening of Election Day:

I included the Red/Green “IF/THEN” arrows which we’ll see shortly in the current 2012 chart so use this as a similar reference (an incumbent running for re-election).

After stagnating through most of 2004, a clear resistance trendline developed into the 1,140 area as Election Day 2004 approached.

When President Bush was declared the winner (of Ohio and thus the election) late into the evening, the market responded bullishly with an immediate breakthrough of the resistance level that sparked a rally that lasted all the way to the end of 2004.

One assumes that had the outcome again been in doubt, the market could have developed a down-swing from resistance as an “alternate” outcome.

Unlike the current election, candidate Obama was heavily favored in the polls against John McCain and the election was decisive:

After a clear election outcome Tuesday evening, the market opened the next day with a sharp sell-off and break back under 1,000 to start a fresh down-swing in the context of an established downtrend that began in October 2007.

Like 2000, the election corresponded with the peak of a counter-trend upswing ahead of a sell-off swing into the end of the year.

The past three elections reveal a “spit decision” of two sell-off outcomes (into December) and one sharp rally outcome (2004).

Here is how the market structure exists as we approach Election Day 2012:

While I don’t plan to make a formal prediction on the state of the election, I’ll just focus on the current structure of the market at a short-term turning point between a new pro-trend upswing off 1,400 or else a breakdown and short-term reversal swing under 1,400.

Polls and pundits point to a narrow win for either candidate and the potential that the outcome is unlikely to be known as soon as the polls close on election evening.

In the event that the election results are in dispute into the next trading morning, this outcome would favor the “Breakdown” thesis where 1,400 may break as support.

Otherwise, just because a winner is declared does not mean the market will automatically rally in a knee-jerk reaction (reference 2008).

If you’re a political news lover like me, stay tuned to the election night coverage to know the winner as soon as possible.

Otherwise as you wake up getting ready to trade the market on Wednesday morning, feel free to use these historical charts as a reference with respect to the key “bull/bear” pivot level near 1,400 currently in play.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey's new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

blog.afraidtotrade.com


SDI Glossary: "Finance" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   After   Bush   Corey   December   Elect   Election   October   President   Wednesday   afraidtotrade   after   approached   counter   current   declared   down   downtrend   election   evening   into   known   late   level   market   morning   next   outcome   past   pivot   point   points   polls   rally   reference   resistance   reversal   sell   start   structure   swing   that   this   thus   toward   trend   under   upswing   winner   with   would

| More

Join John Person's Trader Tools that are Working Right Now Webinar Thursday
Wed, Oct 22, 5:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I wanted to call your attention to a special live educational webinar taking place Thursday, ...

The Rectangle Range Continues for Apple AAPL Trade Planning
Wed, Oct 22, 11:21 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After a mini-bear trap, Apple (AAPL) shares continued trading within a well-defined Rectangle Range Pattern. ...

Updating the Best and Worst Days of 2014 for the SP500
Tue, Oct 21, 6:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Pop Quiz: Without peeking, can you identify which month had the best day for the ...

Up Up and Away Market Update and Stock Scan for Oct 21
Tue, Oct 21, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Just like the prior times when buyers intervened to force a short-squeeze, we’re seeing the ...

Bouncing Range Market Update and Scan for Oct 20
Mon, Oct 20, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With a narrow bounce continuing to drive the market into a known resistance cluster, let’s ...

Netflix NFLX Pushing into Gap after Big Drop
Mon, Oct 20, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Netflix shares (NFLX) suffered a large news-based drop last week that took price all the ...

Join Me and 50 Other Speakers Live at the Las Vegas Traders Expo
Mon, Oct 20, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Be our guest live at the rapidly approaching Las Vegas Traders Expo! The special event ...

Rally Report and Market Update for October 17
Fri, Oct 17, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Price today continued its recovery rally into resistance (see this morning’s update for targets) and ...

Surging Toward the 200 day SMA Target
Fri, Oct 17, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As was generally expected, the market retraced higher after several down-days in a row took ...

Join Me Saturday for a Day of Trader Education
Thu, Oct 16, 5:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Join us live for a day of trading education from Fibonacci to Price Patterns, Trend ...

Stabilizing Market Update and Stock Scan October 16
Thu, Oct 16, 2:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re putting the pieces back together from a broken market yesterday! An afternoon violent “V-Spike” ...

Stabalizing Market Update and Stock Scan October 16
Thu, Oct 16, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re putting the pieces back together from a broken market yesterday! An afternoon violent “V-Spike” ...

Fear Poll: Fed/QE, Ebola and Technicals Top Worry List
Thu, Oct 16, 11:51 AM ET, by Bill Luby

Stocks may be in the process of putting in a bottom, but with the VIX ...

Comparing and Charting SP500 Volatility since Bear Market Bottom
Wed, Oct 15, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

How does current market volatility – which is surging – compare to the two prior ...

VIX and More Fear Poll
Wed, Oct 15, 2:41 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Which of the following makes you most fearful, anxious or uncertain about the stock market?. ...

Market Crashing Intraday Update for October 15
Wed, Oct 15, 1:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“This time, it’s different” and it is very different. When price failed to hold a ...

Support Bounce Market Update and Stock Scan for Oct 14
Tue, Oct 14, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The question today remains “Will we see an actual bounce or will we see yet ...

Market Struggles Desperately to Rally off Weekly Target
Tue, Oct 14, 11:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After failing at two key support levels very recently, the S&P 500 and broader US ...

Largest SPX Pullback of 2014 Hits 6.4%
Mon, Oct 13, 1:51 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Every time there is a pullback, it seems as if I receive multiple requests for ...

New Lows into Support Market Update and Stock Scan Oct 13
Mon, Oct 13, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

At the halfway point today, we’re balancing the odds of another bullish reversal off support ...

Planning Another October Intraday Reversal from Positive Divergences
Mon, Oct 13, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Let’s take a moment to view a “Big Three” Market Internal Chart of the S&P ...

Bounce or Breakdown Market Update for Oct 10
Fri, Oct 10, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Price continues to trade within an intraday downtrend as the sell-phase continues. There’s a clear ...

Support Bounce or Breakdown Planning for the SP500 and Dow
Fri, Oct 10, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes are challenging major support levels that demand ...

Big Bear October 9 Market Update and Trending Stock Scan
Thu, Oct 9, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

One thing’s for sure – the market always keeps us on our toes! The intervention ...

Learn How to Trade Three Important Price Patterns - Thursday Webinar
Wed, Oct 8, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited to be teaching a new webinar with TraderKingdom and ICE this Thursday, October ...

Key Divergences Suggesting Intraday SP500 Reversal
Wed, Oct 8, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

A quick look at our “Big Three Market Internal” Chart of the S&P 500 on ...

October 7 Stock Scanning and Market Update
Tue, Oct 7, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Price continues its range between key boundary levels, making for relatively low volatility session into ...

Stalking an October Reversal Play in Bitcoin
Tue, Oct 7, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Might Bitcoin be setting up a spike-reversal from an arc trendline pattern into support? There’s ...

October 6 Stock Scanning and Market Update
Mon, Oct 6, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Today’s session has been a reversal range session between clear boundaries. Let’s start with our ...

Battle Between Repeating Pattern and Resistance for SP500
Mon, Oct 6, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Will a consistent pattern repeat for the fourth time in 2014 (propelling the market to ...

Song for My Father*
Sat, Oct 4, 6:51 PM ET, by Bill Luby

My father passed away this summer and in the intervening period I set aside my ...

Join Corey Monday for a Panel Discussion Forecasting the SP500
Sat, Oct 4, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited about a special opportunity Monday afternoon to join a panel and discuss the ...

Quick Fibonacci Retracement Guide for Current Market Levels
Fri, Oct 3, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I wanted to provide a quick Fibonacci Retracement reference guide for short-term levels in the ...

Big Bullish Reversal Intraday Update and Stock Scan Oct 3
Fri, Oct 3, 3:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Finally the bulls made their strike – they were ready to pounce after a series ...

Compression Continues as Breakout Beckons in Apple AAPL
Thu, Oct 2, 4:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Apple shares (AAPL) continue their triangle or “EMA Compression” pattern as we await an official ...

October 2 VSpike Reversal Intraday Update and Scan
Thu, Oct 2, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Retracement or V-Spike Reversal? So far, buyers aggressively defended the 1,930 index level and now ...

What Breadth Reveals about a Possible Market Reversal
Thu, Oct 2, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When assessing the probability of a retracement (meaning the trend will continue) or larger reversal ...

Breakdown Intraday Update and Stock Scanning to Start October
Wed, Oct 1, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Today certainly won’t be remembered as an ordinary, average day! At mid-day, stock prices are ...

Fast Fall for Ford Shares into Key Target
Tue, Sep 30, 11:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Ford shares (F) broke a critical support level and collapsed instantly toward the current key ...

Tight Range Compression Continues and Breakout Awaits for Chipotle CMG
Tue, Sep 30, 10:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

For those awaiting a breakout in Chipotle shares (CMG), the wait may be coming to ...

Reversal Intraday Update and Stock Scan for Sept 29
Mon, Sep 29, 1:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

New low? Reversal? Retracement? Let’s take a look at our intraday S&P 500 for today’s ...

Studying the Stealthily Strong Trender Disney DIS
Fri, Sep 26, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

You may not be aware that Disney (DIS) is one of the strongest trending stocks ...

EMA Compression Breakout Trade Forming in Chipotle CMG
Fri, Sep 26, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Chipotle shares (CMG) are forming an “EMA Compression” trade set-up which is a specific type ...

Weekly Pullback Planning for SP500 and Dow Jones
Thu, Sep 25, 3:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Following up from the prior “Pullback Planning Update,” let’s take a quick look at the ...

Bearish Breadth and Price Collapse Stock Scan and Update for Sept 25
Thu, Sep 25, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Look out below! Price broke support and collapsed in a liquidation event today where the ...

Bouncing Market Update and Trending Stock Scan for Sept 24
Wed, Sep 24, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Right on schedule, price rallied up from a known support target level and we have ...

Support Range Bouncing for the SP500
Wed, Sep 24, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Despite the lengthy uptrend, the shorter-term S&P 500 has devolved into a sideways trading range ...

Creeper Trend Continues Intraday Update and Stock Scan Sept 23
Tue, Sep 23, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Here we go again! The market continued its slide lower – as was widely expected ...

Decision Time for Netflix NFLX at Key Price Level
Tue, Sep 23, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Netflix (NFLX) shares face an important turning point at a key support (pivot) level. Let’s ...

Triangle Trade Setting Up in Apple AAPL
Mon, Sep 22, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With all the attention focused on the iPhone 6 this weekend, traders may be missing ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

Charting the SP500 Outcome of Elections Past | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2014, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of over 1000 individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.