Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

Charting the SP500 Outcome of Elections Past

Mon, Nov 5, 5:12 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With Election Day Tuesday and the market at a pivot point that determines how we play the next swing, I thought it would be a good opportunity to look at the outcome going toward December of the past four US Presidential Elections.

Let’s start with the set-up and outcome of 2000 and move forward to today’s structure:

For those of you who remember the famous 2000 election, the winner was not officially known until a month after election day.

With Election Day on November 7th, the S&P 500 was on a swing toward the 1,450 level with daily reversal candles forming as the election approached.

When the market opened Wednesday morning with the election outcome in dispute, the market fell 30 points to start a sustained down-swing that ended at 1,300.

After a counter-trend rally in early December, the market fell sharply after Governor Bush was declared the winner and thus President-Elect.

I must admit that I assumed the market rallied sharply on this news but this was not the case.

Structure was in a downtrend and the election outcome – on Election Day and when the President-Elect was announced – resulted in high-points of counter-trend upwswings in a new downtrend that would last all the way to October 2002’s bottom.

President Bush’s re-election in 2004 was announced late in the evening of Election Day:

I included the Red/Green “IF/THEN” arrows which we’ll see shortly in the current 2012 chart so use this as a similar reference (an incumbent running for re-election).

After stagnating through most of 2004, a clear resistance trendline developed into the 1,140 area as Election Day 2004 approached.

When President Bush was declared the winner (of Ohio and thus the election) late into the evening, the market responded bullishly with an immediate breakthrough of the resistance level that sparked a rally that lasted all the way to the end of 2004.

One assumes that had the outcome again been in doubt, the market could have developed a down-swing from resistance as an “alternate” outcome.

Unlike the current election, candidate Obama was heavily favored in the polls against John McCain and the election was decisive:

After a clear election outcome Tuesday evening, the market opened the next day with a sharp sell-off and break back under 1,000 to start a fresh down-swing in the context of an established downtrend that began in October 2007.

Like 2000, the election corresponded with the peak of a counter-trend upswing ahead of a sell-off swing into the end of the year.

The past three elections reveal a “spit decision” of two sell-off outcomes (into December) and one sharp rally outcome (2004).

Here is how the market structure exists as we approach Election Day 2012:

While I don’t plan to make a formal prediction on the state of the election, I’ll just focus on the current structure of the market at a short-term turning point between a new pro-trend upswing off 1,400 or else a breakdown and short-term reversal swing under 1,400.

Polls and pundits point to a narrow win for either candidate and the potential that the outcome is unlikely to be known as soon as the polls close on election evening.

In the event that the election results are in dispute into the next trading morning, this outcome would favor the “Breakdown” thesis where 1,400 may break as support.

Otherwise, just because a winner is declared does not mean the market will automatically rally in a knee-jerk reaction (reference 2008).

If you’re a political news lover like me, stay tuned to the election night coverage to know the winner as soon as possible.

Otherwise as you wake up getting ready to trade the market on Wednesday morning, feel free to use these historical charts as a reference with respect to the key “bull/bear” pivot level near 1,400 currently in play.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey's new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

blog.afraidtotrade.com


SDI Glossary: "Finance" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   After   Bush   Corey   December   Elect   Election   October   President   Wednesday   afraidtotrade   after   approached   counter   current   declared   down   downtrend   election   evening   into   known   late   level   market   morning   next   outcome   past   pivot   point   points   polls   rally   reference   resistance   reversal   sell   start   structure   swing   that   this   thus   toward   trend   under   upswing   winner   with   would

| More

Triangle Trade Setting Up in Apple AAPL
Mon, Sep 22, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With all the attention focused on the iPhone 6 this weekend, traders may be missing ...

Steep Retracement Midday Update and Trending Stock Scan Sept 22
Mon, Sep 22, 1:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Well this is fun, isn’t it? The market actually traded lower after many days of ...

Planning the Pullback in the Big Three US Equity Indexes
Mon, Sep 22, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In simplest terms, a pullback or retracement is the most logical thing to expect for ...

About that Death Cross in the Russell IWM…
Fri, Sep 19, 4:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’ve been hearing a lot of discussion about the “Death Cross” in the Russell 2000, ...

New Highs Again and Trending Stock Scan for Reversal Day Sept 19
Fri, Sep 19, 3:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Perhaps not surprisingly, the stock market pushed yet again to another intraday high today as ...

New High Market Update and Stock Scan Sept 18
Thu, Sep 18, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Perhaps not surprisingly, the stock market pushed yet again to another intraday high today as ...

Rally into Range Resistance for Google GOOG
Thu, Sep 18, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Google (GOOG) faces an important “make or break” resistance challenge as a short-term range pattern ...

Fed Day Market Update and Stock Scan Sept 17
Wed, Sep 17, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After yesterday’s strength, we have today’s retracement of the bullish reversal. Though price pushed to ...

Bullish Reversal Stock Scan and Market Update for September 16
Tue, Sep 16, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

And now for something a little different! Today’s session sported a strong Bullish Reversal in ...

Hidden Support Areas Revealed from Moving Average Clusters
Mon, Sep 15, 4:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When using moving averages on a chart to find possible targets and support levels, which ...

September 15 Stock Scan and Market Update
Mon, Sep 15, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re still charting the key levels on the S&P 500 along with trending stocks of ...

September Scanning for Overextended Stocks
Mon, Sep 15, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What are the top five most over-extended (bullish uptrending) stocks and which are the top ...

Quick Charting New September Trends in Cross Market Money Flow
Fri, Sep 12, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Even if you are only a stock market trader, it’s important to view money flow ...

Reversal and Market Update with Stock Scan for September 12
Fri, Sep 12, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The intraday downtrend continued and price traded down from the 1,997 inflection level mentioned in ...

Updating our TICK Volatility Charts for September
Thu, Sep 11, 4:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I know, it’s not the most compelling title, but it is very important for all ...

September 11 Midday Market Update and Stock Scan
Thu, Sep 11, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What levels remain important for the S&P 500, what does Breadth suggest about today’s price ...

Market Update and Stock Scan for September 10
Wed, Sep 10, 2:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The S&P 500 is downtrending on the intraday frame and pulling back from a resistance ...

The Course of Crude Oil Never Did Run Smooth
Wed, Sep 10, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re a trader or follower of crude oil, you’ve noticed the increased volatility and ...

New Video and Tuesday Training Webinar with John Carter on Beating the Market Makers
Mon, Sep 8, 6:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As a follow-up from his earlier document “Understanding Options,” John Carter released a new video ...

September 8 Market Update and Trending Stock Scan
Mon, Sep 8, 3:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we wind down our first trading session of the week, let’s take a look ...

Triangles Breakouts and Trends for USDJPY Japanese Yen
Mon, Sep 8, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re seeing another price expansion or trend phase from a triangle breakout in theUSDJPY (Japanese ...

September 5 Reversal Play and Market Update
Fri, Sep 5, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The market has reversed course each day this week and today’s session is no exception. ...

BP Breaks Down through Open Air into Key Target
Thu, Sep 4, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

This morning’s session for BP has been a windfall for the bears. However, shares trade ...

September 4 Market Update and Trending Stock Scan
Thu, Sep 4, 1:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What a fun week it’s been so far! Buyers short-squeezed the market higher each day ...

September 2 Market Update and Daily Stock Scan
Tue, Sep 2, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After a holiday weekend, the market returned with a volatile Tuesday! Let’s chart the broader ...

New eBook on Understanding Options from John Carter
Mon, Sep 1, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

John Carter is at it again! This time he’s written a simple eBook entitled “Understanding ...

Answers to the Top Three Questions about Computers for Traders
Fri, Aug 29, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When working with traders, I’m often asked questions about desktop (or even laptops while on ...

August 29 Holiday Update and Stock Scanning
Fri, Aug 29, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

While the 2,000 index level is critical to our trading decisions, buyers and sellers continue ...

August 28 Intraday Stock Scan and Market Update
Thu, Aug 28, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Our key focal level for the S&P 500 continues to be the simple 2,000 index ...

Planning Fibonacci Retracement Levels for SP500 and Dow
Thu, Aug 28, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“Always be prepared.” Should the market continue trading down against the 2,000 level in the ...

Stepping Inside the Straight Up Rally for the SP500
Wed, Aug 27, 3:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What does the chart suggest about the current rally into 2,000 and what can we ...

Join Corey Wednesday for a Special Five Steps to a Reversal Webinar
Tue, Aug 26, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited about a webinar opportunity I’ll present for you Wednesday as part of Trader’s ...

Charting Three Top Trending Stocks to End August
Tue, Aug 26, 11:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m a big fan of the concept of “Strong Getting Stronger,” and three such stocks ...

Current Market Rally Echoes a Pattern from the Past
Tue, Aug 26, 10:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you look closely at the current market rally, you may see something eerily familiar. ...

Bearish Engulfing Opportunity in Altera ALTR
Mon, Aug 25, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Altera (ALTR) showed up on two of my stock scans this morning and I wanted ...

August 25 Breakout Market Update and Stock Scan
Mon, Aug 25, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Well there we have it! It’s official – the S&P 500 achieved the 2,000 Magnet ...

Charting Apple AAPL Through the 100 Dollar High
Fri, Aug 22, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Last week I posted about “Open Air” and magnet levels in Apple – let’s update ...

August 21 Stock Market Update with Trending Stock Scan
Thu, Aug 21, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

As we continue yet another trend day to the upside, let’s highlight the price action, ...

Color Keltner Channel Chart into Highs for SP500 and NASDAQ
Thu, Aug 21, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Sometimes it’s helpful to look at one indicator at a time, and we can do ...

Triangle Breakout Triggering for USDJPY Dollar Yen
Thu, Aug 21, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

FOREX traders – or those who simply monitor currencies as part of an intermarket picture ...

Hidden Trading Opportunities from August 20 Consecutive Close Scan
Wed, Aug 20, 6:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Sometimes the simplest scans can provide stock candidates to trade that we otherwise may never ...

Up Up and Away for the US Dollar Breakout
Wed, Aug 20, 3:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

With stocks breaking out, it may be a surprise that the US Dollar Index is ...

Studying the Repeat Pattern that Targets New Highs for SP500
Wed, Aug 20, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’ve been posting frequently about the potential “Repeat Pattern” in the S&P 500 that charts ...

Up Up and Away for Home Depot HD Breakout
Tue, Aug 19, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

On better than expected earnings, retail stock Home Depot (HD) gapped higher, breaking to all-time ...

August 18 Breadth and Stock Scan Market Update
Mon, Aug 18, 2:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Our mid-day update takes place on yet another bullish trend day higher as price breaks ...

Intraday Divergence and Reversal Planning for Crude Oil
Mon, Aug 18, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Crude Oil may be forming an intraday reversal pattern – with divergences – off an ...

NASDAQ Breaks to New Highs on Relative Strength
Mon, Aug 18, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re an S&P 500 or Dow Jones only trader, you may be missing the ...

Uncovering a Hidden Value Area for Apple AAPL Shares
Fri, Aug 15, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What are our Color Value Area Charts revealing about a key magnet price area to ...

Interesting Breadth Chart for August 15 Intraday Stock Scan Update
Fri, Aug 15, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We don’t usually have exciting Sector Breadth Charts to show but today is an exception. ...

Planning a Larger Reversal or Another Trap for Corn Traders
Fri, Aug 15, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Even if we don’t trade commodities, it’s helpful to learn educational lessons and plan trades ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

Charting the SP500 Outcome of Elections Past | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2014, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of over 1000 individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.