Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

TVIX Premium to Indicative Value Creeping Back Up…

Mon, Apr 2, 7:12 PM ET, by Bill Luby

If you thought the TVIX (VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN) story was behind us, you might want to think again.

No, I am not talking about the recent news that FINRA is "looking at the events and trading" associated with TVIX and more generally that the regulator has "a review under way looking at a host of issues relating to ETNs and other complex products."

Instead, my interest is in the return of some meaningful premium in TVIX relative to its Intraday Indicative Value (a real-time estimate of an ETP's fair value, based on the most recent prices of its underlying securities) during the last three days.

For some historical perspective, consider that in the months prior to Credit Suisse (CS) suspending creation units on February 21, TVIX typically traded at a premium of about 0.5% above its indicative value. After the creation units were suspended, the premium vacillated wildly (as seen in the graphic below), though for several weeks the premium was locked in a relatively narrow range of 10-20%. That premium over indicative value spiked to 89% on the day before the announcement that Credit Suisse was resuming creation units. Once that resumption of creation units was announced, the premium in TVIX fell all the way back to 2% in just three days, no doubt signaling to many that it would soon be business as usual in TVIX trading.

During the last three days, however, the TVIX premium is has remained largely in the 10-15% range, ending today at 11.4%.

The knee-jerk conclusion here is that there Credit Suisse may be considering the possibility of suspending the TVIX creation units once again. Another interpretation is that while Credit Suisse indicated they would reopen issuance of TVIX "on a limited basis," it is now likely that the limited flow of TVIX creations units has not been sufficient to establish a price equivalence between TVIX and TVIX.IV, suggesting that an imbalance of supply and demand is persisting. Given the low trading volumes for the last three days, I am inclined to believe the that imbalance is more of an issue of supply constrains than one of excess demand, but here the simple interpretation of the data may not be the proper explanation.

The fluctuations in the TVIX premium will be very interesting to watch going forward. One could argue that in spite of my many posts on TVIX, including a (pre-suspension) reminder that the pricing supplement to the prospectus states in no uncertain terms, "The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero," many investors had no idea what they were buying when they purchased shares of TVIX. In the six weeks since creation units were suspended, the public has had a reasonably thorough if sometimes painful education on the matter, even if some of this has come too late to avoid large losses.

Can this wiser and better educated investor class help to create another huge spike in TVIX premium? I have my doubts, but will certainly be watching in earnest. Remember that anyone who pays a 11% premium over fair value for TVIX should anticipate that the premium will evaporate sometime in the near future and that any short-terms gains will likely have to come in the form of other investors who are willing to pay an even larger premium to own an ETN that is likely to underperform UVXY if the VIX does spike.

As an editorial aside, while TVIX may be taking it on the chin in terms of publicity, had this product been launched prior to the 2008 financial crisis, I have little doubt that many investors would have been genuflecting in front of it during the terror that gripped the stock market during its transition to a post-Lehman world.

Related posts:

[source(s): thinkorswim/TD Ameritrade, Yahoo]

Disclosure(s): short TVIX and UVXY at time of writing



SDI Glossary: "Day Trading" Definition
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Exchange" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Futures" Definition
SDI Glossary: "NRA" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Option" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Short" Definition
SDI Glossary: "VIX" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Volume" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Credit   ETNs   Highest   Indicative   Options   Suisse   TVIX   Trading   UVXY   Volume   What   about   again   been   come   creation   days   demand   during   even   fair   have   imbalance   indicative   interpretation   investors   last   likely   looking   many   other   posts   premium   prior   short   some   suspending   terms   that   they   this   three   time   trading   units   value   weeks   were   will   would

| More

New Highs as Far as the Eye Can See (for now) Feb 22
Wed, Feb 22, 11:21 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s rare to see broad market impulses this strong and persistent but yet here we ...

SPX 1, 2 and 3-Year Returns Following Top and Bottom Five (and Ten) VIX Average Annual Readings
Tue, Feb 21, 8:11 AM ET, by Bill Luby

On Saturday, I posted Putting Low Stock Volatility to Good Use (Guest Columnist at Barron's) ...

Putting Low Stock Volatility to Good Use (Guest Columnist at Barron's)
Sat, Feb 18, 5:21 PM ET, by Bill Luby

With spring training just getting underway in Florida and Arizona, I think it is appropriate ...

March Class Special: Detecting Tradable Setups and Reliable Signals with Corey
Thu, Feb 16, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited to announce an upcoming full-month of classes and actionable trader education for you ...

We Forgot what a Pullback Was Market Update Feb 16
Thu, Feb 16, 11:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Wait – what is this? Price can actually go DOWN? After the last five days, ...

Bulls Still Dominate the Highs Feb 15
Wed, Feb 15, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. And still continues even after yesterday’s pullback. ...

Six Stellar Stocks Shooting Straight Up Nine Days in a Row
Tue, Feb 14, 8:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When we scan for stocks, we like to find “strong stocks getting stronger.” One way ...

Market Internals and the New Pullback from the Highs Feb 14
Tue, Feb 14, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. Until today’s pullback at least. ...

New Introduction to the Wave Principle Video
Fri, Feb 10, 5:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’ve never heard of the Elliott Wave Principle, or want a quick intro-level refresher, ...

Time for a Longer Timeframe Bounce for Coca Cola KO
Fri, Feb 10, 10:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Let’s see if buyers can take advantage of a long term rising trendline for Coca-Cola ...

Tesla TSLA Surges with Market on Break to New Highs (but Watch the Weekly Chart)
Thu, Feb 9, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Tesla (TSLA) shares continued their strong uptrend, breaking out to a new swing high this ...

Breaking Out to New Highs Feb 9
Thu, Feb 9, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. Today we’re seeing another breakout to new highs ...

Gilead Sciences GILD Collapses to Keep Steep Downtrend in Motion
Wed, Feb 8, 4:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“Strong Stocks Keep Getting Stronger while Weak Stocks Keep Getting Weaker.” Gilead Sciences reminds us ...

Keeping the Range Going at the Highs Feb 8
Wed, Feb 8, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re seeing a series of small ranges develop in the @ES Emini. Today gave us ...

Pullback Planning for Disney DIS Ahead of Earnings
Tue, Feb 7, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Disney (DIS) reports earnings after the closing bell today. Let’s study the set-up – a ...

Strong Stock Getting Stronger NVDA Rallies its Way Back to the Highs
Mon, Feb 6, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Each week for members, I publish the results of a “Strong Stock Getting Stronger” stock ...

After a Nice Bear Flag BIDU Triggers a Bull Flag Breakout
Mon, Feb 6, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you like trading Bull and Bear Flags as I do, you’ll probably want to ...

Emini Pulling Back from the Highs Trade Planning Feb 6
Mon, Feb 6, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Last week’s breakout sent the market back toward the prior high. However, this morning we’re ...

Market Surging Back to the Highs Update Feb 3
Fri, Feb 3, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Jobs Jobs Jobs! A positive reaction to this morning’s monthly Jobs Report sent the market ...

Bouncing Between the New Range Emini Update Feb 2
Thu, Feb 2, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The range is back! And we didn’t miss it at all. We’re seeing price bounce ...

Apple AAPL Appears Back at the Highs Feb 1
Wed, Feb 1, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Just like that, Apple (AAPL) shares surged toward the price highs of early 2016. Will ...

February Fed Day Fibonacci Bouncing Update Feb 1
Wed, Feb 1, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re using two Fibonacci Grids for planning trades in the intraday Emini as noted. Price ...

Day Two of Market Crashing to Support Jan 31
Tue, Jan 31, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

From the negative divergences in an overextended market, a pullback was precisely the expected future. ...

Swinging Toward and Away from the 20 Day EMA
Mon, Jan 30, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When setting up your trades, it’s helpful to put them within the context of the ...

Crash Goes the Market to Lower Targets Jan 30
Mon, Jan 30, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

From the negative divergences in an overextended market, a pullback was precisely the expected future. ...

Four Market Money Flow during the Stock Market Surge Jan 27
Fri, Jan 27, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We know that US Stocks surged to new all-time highs this week as the Dow ...

Pullback in Progress Market Update Jan 27
Fri, Jan 27, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Down from the highs we go! At least temporarily. Yesterday we looked at our negative ...

Stepping Inside the Breakout with Internals Update Jan 25
Thu, Jan 26, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

How high will this breakout travel? Let’s take a moment to look beneath price to ...

The Breakout is Finally Happening Jan 25 Update
Wed, Jan 25, 11:21 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The market just became exciting again! After a month in a well-defined sideways trading range, ...

Comparing Creeper Uptrends Intraday Jan 24
Tue, Jan 24, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Nobody wants to be a “Creeper” but as traders we certainty do enjoy “creeper” intraday ...

From the Low to the High of the Trading Range Jan 24
Tue, Jan 24, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Trading the market is extraordinary easy right now – buy when price touches the lower ...

The Range is All that Matters Right Now Jan 23
Mon, Jan 23, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stop what you’re doing and look at the trading range. Now. ...

Pondering a Perfect Pattern Repeat for Market at the Highs
Fri, Jan 20, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

A major part of technical analysis (charting) is identifying prior patterns – and their outcomes ...

This is a Very Tight Range for Traders Emini Jan 20
Fri, Jan 20, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stop what you’re doing and look at the trading range. Take off all indicators and ...

No Breakout Not Today Emini Trading Update Jan 19
Thu, Jan 19, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

My heart goes out to you if you excitedly decided 2017 was the year you ...

High Flying Financial Goldman Sachs GS Falls from the Highs
Wed, Jan 18, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Stocks that are high-flyers run the risk of crashing back to earth. Goldman Sachs (GS) ...

Range Range Here to Stay Emini Update Jan 18
Wed, Jan 18, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re ready for this trading range at the highs to end, you’re not alone. ...

Emini Down from the Highs Still within the Range Jan 17
Tue, Jan 17, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In the battle for market dominance we still DON’T have a winner! Bulls? Bears? Still ...

Still Range Trading at the Highs January 13 Update
Fri, Jan 13, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

In the battle for market dominance we still DON’T have a winner! Bulls? Bears? Nada. ...

Volatility Returns to the Emini January 12
Thu, Jan 12, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Buyers and sellers continue to struggle for dominance at the highs and right now neither ...

From the Highs Back to our First Fibonacci Level Jan 11
Wed, Jan 11, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I always find it fascinating when price does exactly what it’s supposed to do – ...

Crude Oil Crushes Lower as Expected from Divergences
Tue, Jan 10, 6:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Crude Oil gives us a textbook example of a reversal pattern – with negative divergences ...

Hey Look at that Emini Range January 10
Tue, Jan 10, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Bull Trap? Breakout? Both bulls and bears and fighting for dominance… and neither side is ...

Emini Playing Again at the Highs January 9
Mon, Jan 9, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Monday morning may be the beginning of a “bull trap” should price remain under the ...

Through the Highs We Go January 6
Fri, Jan 6, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Not to be outdone by this pesky sideways trading range, the stock market broke out ...

Something Strange in Sector Relative Strength Jan 5
Thu, Jan 5, 4:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

What signal is money flow across sectors sending, and what’s strange about it? Let’s take ...

A New Emini Range at the Highs January 5
Thu, Jan 5, 2:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The market has a bullish beginning to 2017 but right now, we’re seeing a return ...

VIX ETPs Flash Some Green in 2016
Wed, Jan 4, 4:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Last year I shocked quite a few investors and media outlets with the publication of ...

Join Us Live TODAY to Plan your 2017 with Corey and Wyckoff Analytics
Wed, Jan 4, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Let’s start 2017 on the right pathway! I’m honored to join Roman Bogomazov and Bruce ...

The Crude Oil Extraordinary Engulfing Day Jan 4
Wed, Jan 4, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Bullish or Bearish Engulfing Candles are rare in general, but it’s even more exceptional to ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

TVIX Premium to Indicative Value Creeping Back Up… | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2017, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of serious individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.