Self Directed Investor Inc
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"
Symbol Lookup »  
Topics:ChinaETFsEarningsEconomyEnergyForexGoldIncomeLessonsIdeasTrading

  • Other news: News from PR Newswire
| More

Triple US Stock Market Check into the Zone

Tue, Feb 14, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Technical traders across the world are monitoring current US Equity Indexes as they interact with the “Zone of Resistance” from their prior 2011 price highs.

Let’s take a quick check-up on where the “Big Three” markets stand at the moment in relation to “The Zone.”

First, the S&P 500 which hasn’t quite cleared the Resistance Area yet:

For reference, what I’m describing as “The Zone” is the cluster of price overlap or resistance from the mid-2011 index highs.

This level became important in 2011 as it resulted in price reversals in February, May, and July in the context of a “Range Consolidation” period in each of these indexes ahead of the August collapse.

Stocks reversed and bottomed in October and have since been rallying powerfully – in a “Creeper Trend” pattern – ever since.

At present, all indexes are either into the Zone of Resistance or else breaking gently above it as in the case of the Dow Jones and NASDAQ (the S&P 500 is the weakest index at the moment, relatively speaking).

As chart traders, we often start with price first and then move to other indicators as confirmation or non-confirmation of what’s happening with price.

Starting at the top, we see an overextended price rally into prior index resistance from 2011.

Going to other indicators, we see negative divergences in momentum and volume, which is a type of non-confirmation of the upward rally.

Strong rallies tend to occur on increasing volume and momentum, and that’s not been the case during the 2012 “Creeper Trend” rallies.

However, going back to our original foundation, we follow price (including trends) as traders and everything else is secondary to price.

This is an important distinction to make because traders who follow indicators first are likely to be short-selling or hedging (or taking profits) into these indicator-based caution signals.

Unfortunately, should price indeed continue trending higher – breaking freely through this resistance – then these same traders will be forced to buy-back to cover their short-sold or hedged positions as other traders will put on new buy-positions or else add to existing positions.

This is exactly the logic of a Positive Feedback Loop which supports these sort of ‘Creeper Price Trends.“ Be sure you understand this logic, as explained in the prior blog posts with plenty of examples of this concept.

Let’s turn now to a quick look at the Dow Jones Index, which has broken slightly above “The Zone.”

Again, we follow price as our top chart ‘indicator,’ and price is currently, arguably weakly, trading above the 12,800 important price level, placing it officially at “New Recovery Highs” not seen since 2008’s Bear Market.

The picture is the same in the NASDAQ, except the recent rally and breakthrough has been stronger, thanks in large part to Tech-stocks like Apple (AAPL):

Another point of comparison is that the NASDAQ is showing short-term strength (increases) in both volume and momentum in 2012, unlike the S&P 500 and Dow Jones which have shown continued declines in both volume and momentum.

NASDAQ Volume and momentum however are still lower than the levels seen at the end of 2011 during the October/November ‘bottom’ period.

So what’s the quick take-away?

Not much has changed since last week’s Triple-Index Market Update.

You can also view last week’s broader perspective view on the Monthly Picture in each of these indexes – it will be helpful in putting any sort of continued price breakthrough higher in context of the larger Bull Market trends since the 2009 official bottom.

The Equity Markets are in a continued conflict between Price (Trend) and Indicators (divergences/overextended rally), which makes it difficult to have strong conviction in your trading decisions, unless they’re on a very short-term basis.

Sometimes, new traders prefer to stand aside when there’s this much conflict between what logically should happened and what’s actually happening.

Stated differently, it’s unusual to see day-over-day ‘creeper trends’ without a meaningful retracement.

This makes it:

difficult to get long because you think the moment you get long will be the exact moment the market actually reverses lower;

and also difficult to get short because despite the logic for at least a retracement if not another reversal, you keep getting stopped out as price continues its ‘creeper trend’ higher.

For me, the solution is to stick with intraday charts and trade short-term opportunities that develop – and there have been some decent classical plays each day.

Of course, the situation would be different if we did see a strong rally and continued breakout higher – that would be expected due to “Popped Stops,” a “Short-Squeeze,” or “Positive Feedback Loop” logic.

It’s this “Price Stagnation and Indecision” within or near the “Zone of Resistance” that’s keeping us all on our toes, anxiously awaiting either a breakout higher or retracement (minimum) or even reversal lower.

Be safe and keep watching the developing structure as unbiased as possible.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey's new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

blog.afraidtotrade.com


SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Equity" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Finance" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Indicator" Definition
SDI Glossary: "NASDAQ" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Resistance" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Short" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Stock" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Trend" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Volume" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:   Corey   Creeper   Jones   Market   Price   Resistance   This   Trend   Zone   above   because   been   confirmation   continued   each   else   follow   from   have   higher   important   index   indexes   indicators   into   logic   lower   moment   momentum   other   positions   price   prior   quick   rally   resistance   retracement   short   since   term   that   these   this   traders   trends   volume   what   which   will   with

| More

A Second Divergent Drop for Google GOOGL
Wed, Mar 22, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Google (GOOGL) rallied a second time into a key reversal or “fade” set-up and delivered ...

Quad Market Movement as the Stock Market Crashes March 21
Tue, Mar 21, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

This morning we just updated the “Stock market crashing through key target levels” but what’s ...

Disney DIS Slides to New Highs on Divergences March 20
Mon, Mar 20, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Disney (DIS) continues to be a “strong stock getting stronger” which is evidenced by today’s ...

Emini Playing into Critical Fib Support Level Today March 20
Mon, Mar 20, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After yesterday’s Fed Day, stocks surged back toward the prior high, breaking their Fibonacci Grid. ...

Announcing Trader Education Week Next Week
Fri, Mar 17, 6:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Get ready for Trader Education Week! Traders Classroom and Club EWI are opening up March ...

Emini Heading Toward the Highs March 16 Update
Thu, Mar 16, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After yesterday’s Fed Day, stocks surged back toward the prior high, breaking their Fibonacci Grid. ...

Here Goes our Fourth Successful SPX Bull Flag Since November
Wed, Mar 15, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re keeping track, the market is poised to complete its fourth successful Bull Flag ...

Fed Day Fibonacci in the Emini Gameplan March 15
Wed, Mar 15, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s the Ides of Mach! And a Fed Day! Do you know where your Fibonacci ...

Emini Bounces Between our Fibs Again March 14
Tue, Mar 14, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re still seeing range action between our key short-term Fibonacci Levels in the Emini @ES. ...

A Bad Day for Wearables GoPro and FitBit GPRO FIT
Mon, Mar 13, 3:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Popular wearable Fitbit (FIT) and GoPro (GPRO) both plunged over 4% today, continuing their ongoing ...

Flailing within the Fibs Emini Update March 13
Mon, Mar 13, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

After gapping higher Friday, stocks stalled beneath our key short-term Fibonacci Level. We’re seeing price ...

Big Downside Surprise for Finisar FNSR on Three Push Reversal Pattern
Fri, Mar 10, 1:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The “Three Push” Reversal pattern is one of my favorite chart patterns and set-ups to ...

Playing the Jobs Report Fibonacci Bounce March 10
Fri, Mar 10, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

A slightly better than expected morning Jobs Report sent shares surging on Wall Street, gapping ...

Emini Crashing Down to the Lower Fibonacci Target March 9
Thu, Mar 9, 2:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Well folks, here we are, crashing through the “First Fib” down to the official 38.2% ...

Crude Oil USO Finally Does Something Interesting Again March 8
Wed, Mar 8, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’ll be honest – I stopped caring about Crude Oil for most of 2017 because ...

Emini Building Rally off Make or Break Support March 8
Wed, Mar 8, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It was so nice the market did it twice! And today makes three times the ...

Gold Also Tumbles to Key Fibonacci Level
Tue, Mar 7, 2:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Like the S&P 500, Gold pulled back to a key Fibonacci and price overlap target. ...

Straight Back to our Emini Fibonacci Target We Go March 7
Tue, Mar 7, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It was so nice the market did it twice! Today we’re seeing a Repeat Day ...

Top Ten Put and Call Option Volume and Activity March 6
Tue, Mar 7, 8:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

File this under “interesting reference post” – as these are the top ten stocks and ...

A Quick Collapse toward Support Target in Advance Micro AMD
Mon, Mar 6, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) more than doubled since last November. However, March has not been ...

Bam Goes the Emini Fibonacci Reversal at Target March 6
Mon, Mar 6, 1:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Did you think it was impossible for the market to pull back to the first ...

Planning Gold as it Declines from Swing High March 3
Fri, Mar 3, 12:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Gold rallied strongly from the $1,120 low to the recent price target near $1,260. What’s ...

The Plot Thickens as the Emini Decline Deeper March 3
Fri, Mar 3, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Do not adjust your computer monitor – you’re actually seeing the Emini pull back from ...

An Actual Emini Pullback from 2400 March 2
Thu, Mar 2, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Do my eyes deceive me or is that an actual authentic pullback in the @ES? ...

Apple AAPL Accelerates Trendline Rage through 140
Wed, Mar 1, 4:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Apple (AAPL) shares raged higher today with an acceleration gap through the $140 per share ...

Are You Watching the Huge Breakouts in Financials XLF FAS FAZ
Wed, Mar 1, 12:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Financials! We’re seeing financial stocks – seen fastest by the XLF Sector EFT – surge ...

Just Showing the Pure Price Emini Breakout Today March 1
Wed, Mar 1, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The market is surging this morning, extending the bull market with a short-squeezed bullish breakout. ...

Ten Years Since the Biggest VIX Spike Ever
Mon, Feb 27, 3:51 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Ten years ago today, we witnessed that largest one-day VIX spikein the nearly three decade ...

The VIX Summit: CBOE RMC (March 8-10 in Dana Point, CA)
Sun, Feb 26, 3:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

I often get asked about where to go to learn more about the VIX and ...

Clustering of Volatility Spikes
Sun, Feb 26, 2:11 PM ET, by Bill Luby

Last week, my Putting Low Stock Volatility to Good Use (Guest Columnist at Barron's) triggered ...

Defensive Gold and Treasuries Bullishly Break Resistance
Fri, Feb 24, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

File this under “very interesting” – defensive markets Gold and Treasuries just reversed higher. If ...

Sharp Down but Fast Up Emini Pullback Update Feb 24
Fri, Feb 24, 11:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

And the plot thickens! Stocks pulled back for a second time this morning, gapping lower ...

Super Down for L Brands New Breakdown Low
Thu, Feb 23, 2:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“Stocks which are weak and downtrending tend to get weaker and go lower.” That’s precisely ...

How Other Markets Behaved while Stocks Surged Feb 22
Wed, Feb 22, 2:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s easy to be distracted by shiny objects, like the non-stop stock market rally since ...

New Highs as Far as the Eye Can See (for now) Feb 22
Wed, Feb 22, 11:21 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s rare to see broad market impulses this strong and persistent but yet here we ...

SPX 1, 2 and 3-Year Returns Following Top and Bottom Five (and Ten) VIX Average Annual Readings
Tue, Feb 21, 8:11 AM ET, by Bill Luby

On Saturday, I posted Putting Low Stock Volatility to Good Use (Guest Columnist at Barron's) ...

Putting Low Stock Volatility to Good Use (Guest Columnist at Barron's)
Sat, Feb 18, 5:21 PM ET, by Bill Luby

With spring training just getting underway in Florida and Arizona, I think it is appropriate ...

March Class Special: Detecting Tradable Setups and Reliable Signals with Corey
Thu, Feb 16, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

I’m excited to announce an upcoming full-month of classes and actionable trader education for you ...

We Forgot what a Pullback Was Market Update Feb 16
Thu, Feb 16, 11:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Wait – what is this? Price can actually go DOWN? After the last five days, ...

Bulls Still Dominate the Highs Feb 15
Wed, Feb 15, 1:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. And still continues even after yesterday’s pullback. ...

Six Stellar Stocks Shooting Straight Up Nine Days in a Row
Tue, Feb 14, 8:31 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

When we scan for stocks, we like to find “strong stocks getting stronger.” One way ...

Market Internals and the New Pullback from the Highs Feb 14
Tue, Feb 14, 11:41 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. Until today’s pullback at least. ...

New Introduction to the Wave Principle Video
Fri, Feb 10, 5:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’ve never heard of the Elliott Wave Principle, or want a quick intro-level refresher, ...

Time for a Longer Timeframe Bounce for Coca Cola KO
Fri, Feb 10, 10:11 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Let’s see if buyers can take advantage of a long term rising trendline for Coca-Cola ...

Tesla TSLA Surges with Market on Break to New Highs (but Watch the Weekly Chart)
Thu, Feb 9, 3:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Tesla (TSLA) shares continued their strong uptrend, breaking out to a new swing high this ...

Breaking Out to New Highs Feb 9
Thu, Feb 9, 12:21 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

The uptrend continues! And continues… and continues. Today we’re seeing another breakout to new highs ...

Gilead Sciences GILD Collapses to Keep Steep Downtrend in Motion
Wed, Feb 8, 4:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

“Strong Stocks Keep Getting Stronger while Weak Stocks Keep Getting Weaker.” Gilead Sciences reminds us ...

Keeping the Range Going at the Highs Feb 8
Wed, Feb 8, 12:51 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

We’re seeing a series of small ranges develop in the @ES Emini. Today gave us ...

Pullback Planning for Disney DIS Ahead of Earnings
Tue, Feb 7, 3:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Disney (DIS) reports earnings after the closing bell today. Let’s study the set-up – a ...

Strong Stock Getting Stronger NVDA Rallies its Way Back to the Highs
Mon, Feb 6, 1:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom

Each week for members, I publish the results of a “Strong Stock Getting Stronger” stock ...

  More articles:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »

ABOUT US »   ADVERTISE »   CONTACT US »   TERMS OF USE & PRIVACY POLICY »

Triple US Stock Market Check into the Zone | Self Directed Investor | Copyright © 2008 - 2017, All Rights Reserved

Any ideas and opinions presented in Self Directed Investor content are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not reflect the opinions of BNK Invest, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or partners. In no way should any content contained herein be interpreted to represent trading or investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All site visitors agree that under no circumstances will BNK Invest, Inc,. its subsidiaries, partners, officers, employees, affiliates, or agents be held liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained. Read Full Disclaimer.

SDI is associated with: ValueForum.com -- a subscription-based online social networking forum of serious individual investors. | MarketNewsVideo.com -- videos appearing on SDI are produced by Market News Video. | TickerTech.com -- stock quote content appearing on SDI is at least 20 minutes delayed and is powered by Ticker Technologies. | GoldStockStrategist.com -- Edited by Scott V. Nystrom, PhD, Gold Stock Strategist provides analysis on gold mining companies.