Gold's Intraday Rounded Reversal and Daily Levels
Sun, Nov 27, 10:31 AM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom
Gold gave us a breakdown sell signal last week in the form of broken daily support in the context of an intraday Rounded Reversal price pattern.
Let’s take a look at these new developments and what levels are key to watch in the week ahead.
First, the intraday “Rounded Reversal” pattern:
First, be sure to take a look at the prior “Fibonacci and Divergence into $1,800″ Update in Gold – you can trace the analysis then into how it played out currently especially in terms of the negative divergences into the $1,800 level.
We can see the bigger picture here as well as how price has played to the downside, breaking one intraday support level to the next (including Fibonacci and $1,700 ’round number’).
That brings us to our current mini-triangle pattern developing between $1,680 and $1,700 with a ‘midpoint’ near $1,690.
a breakdown under the $1,680/$1,670 level could trigger additional selling to complete the “Rounded Reversal” pattern that is about 70% complete (the target would be the $1,600 level);
otherwise, a breakthrough above $1,700 triggers a “Pattern Failure” signal which may initially lead to a move to $1,740 or beyond.
Of course, there’s more components going on than that, but these intraday levels can be a guidepost to watch in the week ahead.
Let’s now pull the perspective up to the Daily Chart developments:
The Daily Chart allows us to see the broader picture beyond the recent “Rounded Reversal” (or “Arc”) Pattern.
For interesting reference, a successful mini-Rounded Reversal triggered into $1,700’s confluence resistance and completed with a move back to $1,600.
Whether or not the current ‘larger’ Rounded Reversal pattern completes depends on whether buyers step in this week off $1,675 or whether sellers continue the price rout which would likely sell-off back towards $1,625 if not $1,600.
The short-term breakdown sell signal came recently on the collapse under the 20/50 EMA then $1,700 level.
Continue watching these levels to guide your trading decisions.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
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