
SDI: "Empowering investors with ideas and education"


Symbol Lookup »

Home

Topics:

| More

We’re Still #1 (Unfortunately)

Mon, Aug 2, 0:33 AM ET, by Donald Marron

The Bureau of Economic Analysis rewrote history on Friday. Along with GDP data for the second quarter, BEA also published revisions to its GDP estimates since the start of 2007.

Bottom line: The recession was worse than originally thought. The economy contracted by 4.1% from peak to trough (Q2 2008 to Q2 2009), up from the 3.9% previously estimated.

The Great Recession has thus solidified its position as the worst downturn since World War II:

As painful as it has been, the recession remains a far cry from the Great Depression, when economic activity plummeted almost 27%:

Which raises an important question: Just how close did the Great Recession get to being the Great Depression 2.0?

Mark Zandi and Alan Blinder took a crack at that question in a paper released last week. Their answer: If it weren’t for aggressive monetary and fiscal policy responses, the U.S. economy would have contracted more than 12% during 2008, 2009, and 2010 — about half a Great Depression (and arithmetically, but not economically, comparable to the demobilization after WW II).

SDI Glossary: "GDP" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Recession" Definition

This Article's Word Cloud: Along Analysis Blinder Bottom Bureau Depression Economic Friday Great Just Mark Recession Their Which about activity aggressive also comparable contracted crack demobilization economic economy estimated estimates fiscal from have history important originally painful paper peak plummeted position previously quarter question recession remains rewrote since than thought thus when with would

| More

StoreIntel 2012 Spring Preview
Fri, Feb 3, 1:31 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
In the next two weeks we will be releasing a StoreIntel review of new Spring ...

Same-Store Sales Strong in Light-Volume January
Thu, Feb 2, 1:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Most retailers saw strong sales in January, which is typically the lightest-volume month and caps ...

The U.S. Economy is Uncertain, Fragile, and … Growing
Wed, Feb 1, 8:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at the Kauffman Foundation, Tim Kane has released his latest quarterly survey of economic ...

Consumer Saving is not Usually a Bad Thing
Tue, Jan 31, 7:11 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
The small headline on the 4:30 PM Tuesday edition of the WSJ on my iPad ...

Tuesday Retail & Consumer Reading List
Tue, Jan 31, 12:21 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
We’re back from vacation – will be catching up the rest of the week, but ...

Do Federal Workers Get Paid More Than Private Ones?
Tue, Jan 31, 11:52 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Yes, according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office. As always in such ...

Online Education and Self-Driving Cars
Mon, Jan 30, 11:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Last week, I noted that former Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun enrolled 160,000 students in an ...

How Much Does the United States Really Owe?
Fri, Jan 27, 8:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
My latest column at the Christian Science Monitor takes a crack at this perennial question. ...

Can One Professor Teach 500,000 Students At Once?
Thu, Jan 26, 9:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
That’s what former Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun aims to do. Sound impossible? Well, he’s already ...

Capital Gains Taxes Are Going Up
Tue, Jan 24, 1:12 PM ET, by Donald Marron
The top tax rate on long-term capital gains is currently 15%. Thats why Mitt Romney ...

FOMC Communication Gets Curiouser and Curiouser
Mon, Jan 23, 6:11 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
In my last post on the subject, I referred to the FOMC's orgy of transparency. ...

The Natural Gas Glut is Reshaping Electricity Markets
Wed, Jan 18, 9:32 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at Bloomberg, Julie Johnsson and Mark Chediak document how low natural gas prices are ...

RetailSails is on Vacation
Tue, Jan 17, 10:51 AM ET, by RetailSails.com
We are taking a short break, and will be returning with some exciting new content ...

Fed Profits
Wed, Jan 11, 1:11 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
The Fed announced yesterday that it turned over $76.9 billion of its earnings to the ...

Oil and Natural Gas Prices Move Even Further Apart
Mon, Jan 9, 8:42 PM ET, by Donald Marron
In 2010, I wrote a series of posts documenting how oil and natural prices had ...

RetailSails is at ICRXchange
Mon, Jan 9, 5:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
RetailSails is at ICRXchange in Miami this week. If you are interested in meeting one ...

By the Numbers: Holiday Same-Store Sales Scorecard
Mon, Jan 9, 3:11 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Click below to see full-size graphic showing holiday retail sales performance at 40 major chains. ...

Getting Better But a Long Way to Go
Sat, Jan 7, 10:32 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Friday’s jobs data confirmed that labor markets are getting better, but slowly. Payrolls expanded by ...

How Do Consumers Spend Engine Efficiency Advances? On Bigger, Faster Cars
Thu, Jan 5, 6:52 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Auto companieshave made great strides in improving engine efficiency in recent decades. But those improvements ...

December Same-Store Sales Rise 3.6% on Promotions
Thu, Jan 5, 12:11 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Driven by heavy promotional activity and a strong finish to the year, most retailers posted ...

Watch the Dollar in 2012, But Be Careful What You Watch
Thu, Jan 5, 9:51 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
Two posts ago, I mentioned the unrealistic composition (currencies and weights) in the DSY dollar ...

Lose an Election, Gain a Think Tank
Wed, Jan 4, 6:12 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at National Affairs, Tevi Troy reviews the evolution–and, he believes, devaluation–of America’s think tanks. ...

Through the FOMC's Looking Glass: An Orgy of Transparency
Tue, Jan 3, 5:21 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Back in the day, when I was a member of the FOMC (1991-2004) I occasionally ...

Happy New Year Reading List
Tue, Jan 3, 1:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Did Retailers Risk Damage To Their Brands Despite Robust Holiday Online Sales? (FastCo) A Look ...

December Comp Preview Conference Call
Tue, Jan 3, 1:31 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Happy New Year! We are anxiously awaiting monthly sales reports from about 25 retailers – ...

You Can’t Manage What You Don’t Measure Correctly, NYC Crime Edition
Mon, Jan 2, 9:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
You can’t manage what you don’t measure. That’s good advice, as far as it goes. ...

Is the Dollar Weak or Strong?
Fri, Dec 30, 1:11 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
I was a guest on CNBC's Squawk on the Street this morning, see (http://video.cnbc/gallery/?video=3000065073/ and ...

The Best Photograph of the Year
Mon, Dec 26, 8:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
Last week I made my nomination for the most important economic chart of the year. ...

Christmas Reading List
Fri, Dec 23, 1:31 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Retailers Slashing Prices Ahead Of Holiday With Discounts Across Entire Stores Widespread (NY Times) Consumers ...

Santa, Could You Please Give Me the Impossible?
Thu, Dec 22, 4:42 PM ET, by Donald Marron
P.S. More cards here from smileecards. ...

The Twelve Days of Christmas for Our Weak Economy
Thu, Dec 22, 11:42 AM ET, by Donald Marron
With apologies to Christmas carol purists, my latest Christian Science Monitor column offers up the ...

The Most Important Economic Chart of the Year
Wed, Dec 21, 4:12 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Ezra Klein surveyed 18 economists for their charts of the year. Here’s my candidate, courtesy ...

Wednesday's Retail & Consumer News
Wed, Dec 21, 1:31 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Here are the retail and consumer reads on our radar today. Remember, you can always ...

North Korea’s Economic Failure in One Picture
Mon, Dec 19, 8:12 AM ET, by Donald Marron
North Korea is notoriously secretive. But it can’t hide from satellites. ...

Will New Technology Help People Escape the “Sports Tax”?
Fri, Dec 16, 6:32 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Today’s exercise in everyday economics:Brian Stelterand Amy Chozick making the case that cable and satellite ...

Why Are Restaurant Dinners Pricier Than Lunch?
Thu, Dec 15, 6:12 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at Quora, restaurateurJonas M. Luster explains why he charges more for items at dinner ...

A Great Introduction to Economic Inequality
Wed, Dec 14, 6:32 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Over at the Browser, Sophie Roell interviews MIT economist Daron Acemoglu on the economics of ...

Chart of the Day: Best Buy vs Amazon
Wed, Dec 14, 11:41 AM ET, by RetailSails.com
Over the past decade, Amazon.com has shaken up the retail world and forced traditional chains ...

FOMC Transparency - Translucence Would Be Better
Tue, Dec 13, 5:21 PM ET, by Bob McTeer
Transparency is a current FOMC cause But it reminds me too much of sausages and ...

Tuesday Retail News
Tue, Dec 13, 12:11 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Visions of lively retail town centers dancing in more developers' heads (Washington Post) Holiday Retail ...

Retail Sales Miss the Mark in November
Tue, Dec 13, 11:11 AM ET, by RetailSails.com
As we have been saying for several weeks now, the over-hyped Thanksgiving weekend results were ...

Even More Expiring Provisions
Mon, Dec 12, 7:32 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Two follow ups on the nice Pew chart of many federal laws that expire at ...

Time’s Almost Up for $152 Billion in Expiring Provisions
Mon, Dec 12, 3:12 PM ET, by Donald Marron
America is increasingly governed by temporary policies. The 2001/2003/2010 tax cuts get most of the ...

Cuddle in Coach, But Don’t Get Too Comfortable
Fri, Dec 9, 6:52 PM ET, by Donald Marron
Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal had a fun article about Air New Zealand’s latest innovation: Cuddle ...

Friday Reading List
Fri, Dec 9, 2:21 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Wal-Mart’s rebound puts holiday pressure on rivals (Reuters) Affluent, white women dominate coupon use, according ...

Chart of the Day: McDonald's Winning Strek
Thu, Dec 8, 2:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
McDonald’s reported monthly sales for November today, and as usual the results were outstanding: an ...

Protection Does Not Create Jobs
Thu, Dec 8, 10:41 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
My wife keeps getting e-mails forwarded by her friends urging everybody to buy American to ...

Chart of the Day: Retail Hiring Jumps, but Gains Won't Last
Wed, Dec 7, 1:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
Last week’s unemployment report showed a substantial drop in the unemployment rate, and overall job ...

Retail IPO Profile: Michael Kors
Tue, Dec 6, 2:51 PM ET, by RetailSails.com
After 30 years as a private company, ‘accessible’ luxury lifestyle brand Michael Kors plans on ...

You Can Always Tell A Harvard Man, But You Can't Tell Him Much
Sun, Dec 4, 11:21 AM ET, by Bob McTeer
Greg Mankiw, the Harvard professor who was recently walked out on by several students in ...