Positive Breakout in UUP US Dollar ETF Aug 11
Wed, Aug 11, 12:11 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom
I wanted to show a quick chart of the 60-min intraday structure of the US Dollar ETF – UUP – and highlight the multiple positive momentum divergences and the recent powerful breakout to the upside – which could signal a change in the short/intermediate term down-move in the Dollar Index. Let’s take a look: 
This is actually very similar to the daily chart of the fund going back to the end of 2009 ahead of the powerful upside breakout – and if the index is to reverse to the upside, it’s going to do so here. Look closely at the 3/10 Momentum Oscillator and the series of higher lows in the oscillator when compared to a string of lower lows in price – that highlights growing bullish momentum in a similar method to a rubber band being stretched. The further the stretch, the more violent/painful the snap-back. It looks like we’re seeing that ‘painful’ upside resolution (to shorts) today come true. Counting today, there have been three subsequent upside morning gaps – gaps can be seen as confirmation of an impulse (up-move) underway. On the 60min chart, watch what happens at the $24.00 level right here – it’s the 200 period SMA and could hold resistance. If not, look for a continuation and official trend reversal to the upside. For a quick reference, here’s the Daily Chart with additional reference levels to watch: 
Price nipped just slightly under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement off the December 2009 low to the June 2010 peak – and price broke today above the 200 day SMA. That could be a big development. Price also broke above the falling 20 day EMA and looks set for a ‘collision course’ for the 50 EMA at $24.25. Right now, price rests at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $24.00. So, a break beyond $24.00 and above $24.25 would be a confirming sign of a positive trend reversal on the intraday frames – keep that in mind and how that would play out in the cross-market currents. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
 blog.afraidtotrade.com
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "TA" Definition
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