Another Lesson and Example of Trading Intraday Trend Reversals
Fri, Aug 20, 7:41 PM ET, by Corey Rosenbloom
It wasn’t long ago -August 6th to be exact – when I highlighted the exact same concept I’m about to show in this post – in regards to the ‘warning signals’ given prior to an afternoon intraday reversal. Be sure to read my prior lesson post: “The Four Early Warning Signals Given Before the Intraday Reversal of August 6th” With that in mind, let’s look at the intraday SPY (similar structure to the @ES Futures contract or other major market ETFs/Futures contracts) and see how those lessons paid off again today. 
(Click for full-size image) Remember, we started the session with a sharp down move that continued from yesterday’s activity. What were the exact – and repeatable – signs that the market was more likely to REVERSE than to continue trading lower? 1. Dual Positive Momentum & TICK DivergenceFirst, we had a dual positive divergence, coming in as shown above from the 3/10 Momentum Oscillator and NYSE TICK. Look closely at the push to new intraday lows under $107 – while price made a new intraday low, both TICK (look closely) and momentum made HIGHER lows in a classic positive divergence (warning sign). 2. Hidden TICK Sign of StrengthNext, we had price push up to the 20 EMA and as price pushed slightly higher – clearly NOT making a new intraday high – we had TICK form a new intraday peak high (near the 800 level). I have little green and red dots on both my TICK chart below and SPY (price) chart above to help me see the TICK extremes better so I can spot divergences and new TICK highs/lows clearer. Notice the two New TICK Highs – I call these “Signs of Strength” (or “Hidden Signs of Strength”) that formed at 11:30 am and 12:00pm – when price was NOT making a new high. That’s another early warning sign of a likely trend reversal. 3. EMA Price Breakout (Trigger)Finally, we had the actual confirmation – via price – with a breakout above the 50 EMA (blue) and short-term horizontal resistance at the $107.30 level. Notice the price compression that took place before the breakout as price was ‘trapped’ between the 20 and 50 EMAs – I always find that interesting when it happens – it’s the sign of a likely breakout yet to come. From the price breakout, we had a rally – then second consolidation – into the close. Let’s review: 1. Positive Dual TICK and Momentum Divergence
2. Hidden TICK Sign of Strength
3. Price Break above 50 EMA and Resistance Look for those three signals – technically two signals (the divergence and the Sign of Strength) to form and look for the confirmation (step 3) to come via price. It’s another lesson of the importance of active trade management (if you were strongly short this morning) and how bias can blind you to evidence to the contrary – in this case, classic bullish early warning signals. These are the type of lessons and examples I show to members each day in the Idealized Trades Reports. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
 blog.afraidtotrade.com
SDI Glossary: "Breakout" Definition
SDI Glossary: "price" Definition
SDI Glossary: "ETFs" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Futures" Definition
SDI Glossary: "NYSE" Definition
SDI Glossary: "Resistance" Definition
SDI Glossary: "TA" Definition
SDI Glossary: "TICK" Definition
This Article's Word Cloud:
August
Corey
Futures
Hidden
Momentum
Notice
Positive
Price
Sign
Signs
Strength
TICK
above
another
both
breakout
chart
classic
closely
confirmation
divergence
early
exact
from
high
intraday
lesson
lessons
level
likely
look
lows
made
making
market
positive
post
price
prior
push
reversal
short
show
sign
signals
that
this
warning
were
when
More articles: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 next »
| 
RSS